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Dinamo Bucharest and FC Botosani are in completely different situations before this game in the 16th round of the Romanian Liga 1. While the hosts are in excellent form and are looking break into the Top 5, the visitors (12th place) will try to overcome a horrific patch of form and avoid dropping too deep into the Liga 1 relegation zone.
Sixth placed Dinamo is traditionally a giant in Romanian football, but this year saw the team go through some changes. Due to some financial problems a new owner took charge at the club, and the hosts are going through a rebuilding process at the moment. Some high paid players have left the club and a couple of youngsters have been promoted, along with the signings of a bunch of foreign players. Dinamo looked worse than anticipated in the first part of the season, but since youth team coach Flavius Stoican was appointed as manager two months ago, the team started playing better and better. Dinamo`s form is fantastic at the moment: 6 wins in the last 7 games and a run of three consecutive wins prior to this Botosani game, all with the same scoreline (1-0). With some relatively strong fan support this season, Dinamo has been particularly impressive at home, posting a statline of 5 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in Liga 1 and 3 wins from 3 games in the Romanian Cup, while winning the last 4 home matches in all competitions. The last time the Red Dogs lost on their home turf was on 11 august against a quality Steaua Bucharest side (1-2).
The last three rounds saw Dinamo tighter than ever at the back, allowing the visiting sides arguably NO scoring chances over the course of 270 minutes aside from a couple of dangerous crosses in the box (admittedly, I missed 30 minutes from the game against Sageata, so I don`t know what happened in that time-span). While all the wins came with 1-0, Dinamo could have won by bigger margins. The last game against Pandurii three days ago saw the Bucharest side create at least 5-6 clear-cut goalscoring chances, but the quality in finishing is just not there for Dinamo right now. All in all, I have to say the team is in great form.
Botosani has little quality in the squad, and the team was viewed as an outside favorite for relegation prior to the season, but some impressive performances in the first few rounds saw them even topping the league for a few weeks. However, their form quickly faced away, and the lack of quality surfaced. Botosani is in horrible form right now, with 7 consecutive losses to their name (6 in the Liga 1). Also, their manager Cristian Popovici has been sacked this week, a very bad move in my opinion as most of this team`s succes was linked to his name and he was popular among the players. Inexperienced Bordeanu took over, at least for the moment. The visitors’ problems don`t end here, as there is uncertainty over the financial state of the club. With all these issues, needles to say that team morale is at an all time low. A strong point for Botosani today is that they played better on the road than at home, but they still lost their last 4 away games.
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Team news & lineups
Dinamo will miss right back Collins Fai (long term injury), left-back Grecu and center-back Durimel. All three are usually regulars in the side, but not exactly key players at the moment. Botosani has big squad problems for today, with a single goalkeeper being 100% fit. The visitors also miss a couple of outfield players, including regulars Poverlovic and Tincu, which are suspended. I can see Dinamo Bucharest starting with the following first 11:
Dinamo: Balgradean – Rus, Luchin, Grigore, Filip – Boubacar (Elton), Thicot – Matei (Rotariu), Curtean, Lazar – Tucudean
Take Dinamo to win this one and the hosts could also cover the 1 goal handicap. I mostly stayed away from Dinamo’s games in the first part of the season, due to the inconsistency expected because of the squad changes and the high number of young players in the team. However, watching the home team in the last three games, I feel the side is in a better spot now and this will be my 3rd pick on the Red Dogs in 4 games. Hopefully it will end up as good as the previous two, and I am very confident that this will be the case.
Botosani is pure rubbish at the moment, and besides their form they are in all sorts of trouble with injured players, coaching or team morale. Dinamo is playing some good football lately, they totally outplayed an Europa League team (Pandurii) last time out, they are strong at home and rock solid at the back. They do miss three defenders, but only left back Grecu could be considered a real blow, as there is no adequate replacement for him. I will go with a 1,25 goal asian handicap on Dinamo today. Despite winning by slim margins basically all their games under Flavius Stoican, I feel this one will be a more comfortable win, as Botosani is in the worst possible spot and simply has no arguments to spring a surprise. Stoican stated that he`d like to record clearer wins and that they will come with time. The Red Dogs could have easily covered the handicap in the last few games, but missed their chances. Also, Botosani is a team that often loses big (last two rounds: 0-5, 0-2). Due to the obviously improving form of Dinamo, home-court advantage, quality difference and dirt poor opponent, I can see the hosts winning this at least 2-0. My tip would be an easy home win, something like Dinamo Bucharest – FC Botosani 3-0.
The only things going for Botosani are the motivation to break the losing run, coaching change (possibly – you never know), the fact that Dinamo is still not a top-class team in the league and the cold weather that is expected at the time of the game (which could make for a frozen pitch and could or could not hurt the chances for a free-flowing, open game). I do not think these arguments are solid enough to make this one a close game.
As always in my previews on Dinamo, I will inform you that I am a Dinamo Bucharest fan, so you can draw your own conclusions, even though I feel my objectivity can not be questioned.
Pick: Dinamo Bucharest (-1,25 Asian Handicap)
Odds: 2.17 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 11.7
Event date: 7 December
Editor Facts
- Rostick won his last 8 tips in the Romanian Liga 1 and Romanian Cup
- Rostick is 4 for 6 in picks involving Dinamo Bucharest this season
It’s like you read my mind! If our strikers manage to actually shoot on goal this time around …. *cough* tucudean *cough* this should be an easy win for both the club and for us money wise. I’m gonna go with a -1.5 because I like to live dangerously 😀 ! 2.45 odds means we need this bet to be won like 38% of the time to be profitable and I think looking at Botosani’s form it’s like 40-50% likely to happen I’d say. Of course if Tucudean does his number again …. but let’s not think that way
🙂
I completely agree with -1.5, it`s the logial choice here, I`m just going with a little bit of safety-first approach after a bad month, as you can never rule out a surprise. Tucudean will probably do his number again, the truth is he`s of poor quality and out of form, but he could bag a goal though against this opposition. I expect the 3-man line behind him to complete the job. The pressure in the last game was higher and maybe that made for so many missed chances.
I am unlucky this week and I jinxed the bet 🙁 should have kept my mouth shut on this one. At least we won.