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A rejuvenated Dinamo Bucharest side will take on in-form Gaz Metan Medias at Dinamo Stadium, Bucharest, with three rounds left to go in the Romanian Liga 1. Earlier in the season (late last year), Dinamo won 2-1 in Medias.
“Rejuvenated” might be a bit of an overstatement for Dinamo, but the Red Dogs showed massive improvement last round against Viitorul, Mircea Rednic’s first game in charge as manager. After playing some horrible football and winning just once in 9 matches, Dinamo took a 2-0 win at Viitorul. The Red Dogs were mediocre in the first half and a little lucky, as the opponents missed a penalty at the start of the second half – but after that, it was a great second half from Dinamo, who could have easily added to the lead.
The hosts are on the 7th place and have no real objective aside from the TV money, but these last three rounds will be crucial for most players, as Mircea Rednic will decide if he keeps them next season. They are fighting for their jobs and this could be seen against Viitorul. Dinamo has a better squad than recent results suggest and after the colossal managerial improvement with the appointment of Rednic instead of poor Stoican, the Red Dogs should be dangerous in these last matches – especially since Rednic is well known to have an immediate impact on his teams.
Gaz Metan has been very hard to beat lately, putting together a run of 6 matches without a loss (2 wins, 4 draws) and defeating league leaders Targu Mures 1-0 last round – though they were lucky to get the goal in the last minute. Good defense has been the main quality of the visitors but, despite this run, Gaz Metan is still involved in the relegation battle. They are just 1 point over the red zone, so they need points like air – preferably wins instead of draws, but I`m sure they will be very happy with a point at Dinamo.
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Team news & lineups:
Key midfielder Elhamed is suspended for Dinamo, while center backs Machado and Nedelcearu are out as well. Attacking midfielder Matei returns from injury. Gaz Metan will have to do without two key defenders in Buzean and Cretu, both suspended after the previous match. Velazquez and Mujdragic are long term injuries.
Dinamo: T. Marc – Fai, A. Marc, Bunoza, Filip – Grigore, Cristescu – Rotariu, Alexe, Grozav – Marius Niculae
Gaz Metan: Plesca – Zaharia, Abrudan, Muth, Trtovac – Tahar, Elton – Munteanu, Curtean, Llullaku – Roman
Three things are working against Dinamo here – Gaz Metan’s motivation, the fact that Gaz Metan is hard to beat and Dinamo’s horrible form in 2015. I can discard all these arguments. I don’t think motivation will be a factor with Dinamo’s players fighting for their jobs. Gaz Metan is indeed hard to beat and defend well, but their recent results on the road were draws against two of the worst teams in the league and a win against a side in total disarray (Astra). Lastly, Dinamo’s poor form in 2015 has little to no relevance since we’re talking about big changes being made recently at all levels – new coach, new sporting director and a player being fired for alleged match fixing.
Obviously Dinamo still has a lot of problems to sort out and they are far from playing fantastic football right now. I am not overly optimistic and do not expect Rednic to transform this team in title challengers in two weeks (or maybe never), but they are clearly improving and they meet a team worse than them, who is much more dangerous at home than on the road. I also believe that Gaz Metan will find it hard to cope without two key defenders (Cretu being arguably their best player), as they do not have depth and any change in the regular lineup is a big problem that can have negative effects.
I was a little torn between betting the straight win with 8 units or picking the -0,25 asian handicap with 10 units. In the end I believe that the extra safety of the handicap bet is well worth taking a lower price, especially as 1.90 is still very, very good. A draw seems like the worst possible scenario, Gaz Metan is not exactly a team to win games often, so if a tied result happens we will at least get half of our stakes back – though I fully expect Dinamo to win, the easy way or the hard way. All in all My tip is Dinamo Bucharest to win with a 0,25 asian handicap. Prediction: Dinamo Bucharest – Gaz Metan Medias 2-1.
Pick: Dinamo Bucharest (-0,25 Asian Handicap)
Odds: 1.90 @ Sbobet
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 9
Event date: 15 May
