Dinamo – Pandurii

Dinamo Bucharest takes on Pandurii Targu Jiu in the reverse leg of this Romanian League Cup semifinal, a match that will define the season for both teams. Pandurii is riding a 2-1 advantage from the first leg, but they will feel they could have done more in a match they clearly dominated against a Dinamo side that looked much worse than right now.

Dinamo (6th in Romania) played its first match of 2015 after a busy transfer window against Pandurii in the first leg. Clearly lacking any kind of cohesion, the Red Dogs were horrible and the 1-2 defeat was not a bad result considering that Dinamo clearly did not deserve to score in that game. However, Dinamo improved consistently in the next three games, winning against Otelul and ‘U’ Cluj before losing 2-1 over the weekend in Targu Mures – but Dinamo played really, really well. They were leading and controlling the game on the road against one of the best teams in Romania until a red card at the hour mark, followed by two lucky goals by Tg Mures.

If you look at Dinamo’s roster, the defense is absolute garbage, while the offense could easily be considered the best in Romania. Indeed, the attacking guys are starting to play better together and created a ton of chances in the last two games, while the defense is making laughable errors in every game – only the poor opposition being the reason for which Dinamo has 2 clean sheets in 4 games this year.

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Pandurii (9th in the league) is on the back of a disappointing 1-1 draw at Ceahlaul on Friday, but that doesn`t take away the fact that the visitors are looking very good in 2015 under Edi Iordanescu. Pandurii plays a nice brand of possession based football, attack-oriented with fast passes and quality players up front. They have 2 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss this year and their best game came in the first leg against Dinamo, when they controlled the match and fully deserved their win.

Team news: Dinamo has problems in defense ahead of this match, as 4 center backs have problems: Machado is suspended, Nedelcearu is injured, Marc is unfit and Durimel is slightly doubtful, leaving a single center back fully fit (Bunoza). Otherwise the Red Dogs are healthy. Pandurii doesn`t have any new issues and will probably field a similar lineup to the one that finished 1-1 against Ceahlaul on Friday.

The under over market is the way to go on this clash and I feel the odds for the over hold great value, especially with all those missing players Dinamo has in defense. Theoretically it is a very important game and nobody will want to take risks, especially considering the result in the first leg. That is true, but I fully anticipate a different scenario. I do expect a cautious start, but there seems to be little chance for Dinamo to be able to keep a clean sheet against a versatile team like Pandurii – I expect them to concede one time and when that goal comes in, the match will fully open, as the hosts will not have any choice but to attack – and they can do that very well. After all both sides are built to play attacking football and the last three matches so a combined 13 goals, so the odds are way off for this bet.

My tip is over 2,5 goals to be scored. Prediction: Dinamo Bucharest – Pandurii Targu Jiu 2-1 (Dinamo to qualify at penalties).

Pick: over 2,5 goals
Odds: 2.12 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 7.84
Event date: 10 March