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This Romanian Cup semifinal tie is all but over after Steaua won the first leg 5-2 at home, but nevertheless this is the biggest derby in Romanian football so it will be a massive encounter.
Dinamo (4th place in Liga 1) was vastly outplayed in the previous match, a little bit surprising considering that the Red Dogs had previously drawn 1-1 with Steaua on the road in the league on the 1st of March (with Steaua equalizing in the 90th minute). In the Cup however Dinamo was a level below their rivals, being easily outplayed on the defensive end and looking like they were afraid not to lose by an even bigger margin at times. On the bright side Dinamo recovered well after that 2-5 disaster to draw with strong Petrolul (away) and defeat Otelul and Ceahlaul in the league.
Steaua Bucharest seemed to have booked the Liga 1 title for the 2nd consecutive season, but with a single point in the last two games their advantage shrinked to just 6 points. I still firmly believe Steaua will win it, as they are clearly the best team in Romania right now, but their recent form is worrying – a 0-0 draw at Timisoara and a 0-1 home loss to Vaslui, two opponents in very difficult situations. But Steaua should be able to raise the level today against their old rivals and I expect that to happen, even though the first leg advantage might call for a bit of a let off.
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Team news & lineups
Both sides are relatively healthy for this game. Steaua complained that 4 key players got sick last weekend, but surely they will all play. Dinamo will continue to miss key center back Thicot.
Steaua Bucharest: Tatarusanu – Varela, Szukala, Gardos, Latovlevic – Pintilii, Sanmartean – Tanase, Stanciu, Popa – Chipciu
Dinamo Bucharest: Balgradean – Rus, Durimel, Grigore, Filip – Barboianu, Elton – Lazar, Matei, Rotariu – Tucudean
Dinamo is in rebuilding mode this season and Steaua is without a doubt the better team, but the result in the first leg doesn`t really reflect the difference between the two. Steaua scored 3 goals between the 37th and 45th minutes, making it 4-1 before the break, on a blackout period by Dinamo. Also, Dinamo`s keeper was simply awful. Steaua was much better, but they needed favorable circumstances to win by such a big margin. I picked Dinamo to keep it close in the previous game and obviously I was dead wrong, but I will go on and do the same today, as the circumstances are much more favorable for the Red Dogs this time around. The hosts are in better form lately and are pumbed up to erase the first-leg shame and at least get a win for pride. Unlike a few years back, this year Dinamo has a team which is able to fight, run and grind out results even though the quality is not very high. As I said, I expect Steaua to be better than they were in the last games, but even so I can see Dinamo getting at least a draw in front of 40.000-50.000 electric fans.
Surely the visitors will be satisfied with a tie and won`t be too upset with a 1 goal loss either, while the Red Dogs are clearly the more motivated side and proved they can get a result against Steaua just 1 month and a half ago. My tip is Dinamo Bucharest +0,5 handicap (1x double chance), the odds for this bet are just too high considering all the circumstances. Prediction: Dinamo Bucharest – Steaua Bucharest 2-1 or 1-1.
Pick: Dinamo Bucharest (+0,5)
Odds: 1.77 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 6.16
Event date: 17 April
