Dinamo – Steaua

The biggest derby in romanian football will see another episode today when Dinamo hosts Steaua in the Liga 1 4th round. The game is pretty unbalanced on paper, with Steaua being reigning champions and Dinamo in a rebuilding process.

The hosts changed ownership in the summer, as the team had to overcome some financial difficulties. Dinamo has a roster consisting of many talented youngsters, a few experienced veterans and some foreign players, most of them of questionable quality. With this squad, the red dogs showed a mix of performances in the first two rounds, with a brilliant game against strong Vaslui (2-0) and two abysmal performances against Timisoara (0-2) and Viitorul (0-0). They are very inconsistent at the moment. Dinamo also has a rather poor manager in Gheorghe Multescu. He will opt for a reactive approach, with tight defense and fast counters and he will field the following first eleven:

Bălgrădean – L. Rus, Dr. Grigore, Durimel, Fai – Thicot, Elton – C. Matei, Curtean, St. Filip – Thomas

Steaua was in really bad shape over the last few years, but last season they hired young coach Reghencampf who managed to revitalize this team. The visitors have a great squad quality – wise and are still undefeated this season after 6 games in all competitions. Last year Steaua won the league comfortably and they even had some small european achievements, like knocking out Ajax at penalties or beating Chelsea at home in the Europa League. Steaua`s main strength is its midfield and fitness.

Probable first eleven for Steaua: Tătăruşanu – Georgievski, Szukala, Chiricheş, Latovlevici – Pintilii, Bourceanu – Ad. Popa, N. Stanciu, Cr. Tănase – Piovaccari

The red dogs will miss midfielder Catalin Munteanu, defensive midfielder Boubacar and best centre-back, Luchin. Steaua will be without second striker Chipciu and target man Nikolic, but they have replacements of the same quality.

Despite the fact that Steaua is one class above Dinamo at the moment, it should be a hard game for the visitors. They have lowered the level a little bit from last season, and Dinamo will be a tough nut to crack in a derby, at home, where they will get a lot of fan-support (over 30.000 fans are expected in attendance). The arena will not be full because of the vacation season in Romania, but it will still be a fantastic atmosphere in the stands.

Steaua won last year 3-1 (h) and 2-0 (a) against Dinamo. Actually, 4 out of the last 5 meetings ended with over 2,5 goals and I suspect that could happen again today. Dinamo is young, exuberant and inexperienced, Steaua is strong in offense. The visitors will control the midfield and they should score at least once given their quality and Dinamo`s injury problems at the back. On the other hand, Dinamo will have their chances on the counter. The game will have a referee that does not interrupt the game too often, so that will help for a high scoring game. Also, in the last direct meetings there has been a surprising number of penalties, basically every game had at least one penalty. It could happen again today, since the game has the same characteristics like the ones in the last two years, with Steaua being stronger.

I don`t particularly like betting on overs, but today it seems that we could see at least three goals, and the odds are great. If I were to pick a scoreline, it would be 2-1 for Steaua. They are favorites to win this, but the odds on them have absolutely no value.

Pick: over 2,5
Odds: 2.42 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 9.94
Event date: 11 August