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This pick comes a little late so I`ll try to keep it as short and concise as possible. Dinamo Zagreb won 3-1 in the first leg of this Europa League playoffs and will feel confident about their qualification chances, but Petrolul will take some positives from the first match and hope they will spring a surprise.
Dinamo Zagreb was knocked out by Aalborg in the Champions League qualies, losing 2-0 at home after winning 1-0 away. However it was really unlucky for the Croatians, as they were clearly better than Alborg and had ton of chances, while the Danes scored from very few opportunities. It seems the tides have turned in this tie and Zagreb benefited from the same kind of luck against Petrolul. The Romanians should have won the first leg, it was a balanced first half (Petrolul a little better) and then in the second half Petrolul had 4-5 clear cut chances they missed. Dinamo Zagreb scored 2 goals in the last 10 minutes and those were the only chances they had in the second half.
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Petrolul has a good team, they have amazing quality in the offensive area and that is why they are scoring a lot of goals despite having a defensive minded manager. Petrolul is first in Romania, they are in good form, but the 3-1 deficit from the first leg will be hard to overturn here. Normally the Romanians should have won that match 2-1 or 3-1, but that`s football.
Both teams like to play offensive football and I reckon this will be an entertaining match, similar to the first one. Petrolul can`t sit back and defend, that`s for sure, and they can`t play a waiting game either. The Romanians need to score 3 goals and need to go for it. The bright side is that they do have the quality to score 3 times, but on the other hand it will be difficult to stop Zagreb from scoring themselves – the Croatians will have some spaces and surely they can take advantage at home. I think the value lies on Petrolul to win with asian handicap 0 here, they have a good team and were the better side in Romania, but In Croatia it will be harder for them and I`m not quite sure they can pull off the win – the safer bet is the over 2,5 goals and it has very good odds as well, close to the +0 handicap. Note that Petrolul also misses its best defender Geraldo, so my tip is over 2,5 goals. Prediction: Dinamo Zagreb – Petrolul 2-2.
Pick: over 2,5 goals
Odds: 2.03 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 9.27
Event date: 28 August
