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Novak Djokovic did not enter the US Open in his best form, having a rather poor summer hard court season by his standards. He lost in the Montreal semifinals to Nadal and in the Cincinnati quarters with Isner. Of course, people have over dramatized things, as Nole still was at a very high level and he proved it in the first three rounds here at US Open, where he easily won against Berankis (6-1 6-2 6-2), Becker (7-6 6-2 6-2) and Sousa (6-0 6-2 6-2).
Granollers had a strange season so far, alternating disastrous performances with some solid tournaments. In the summer hard court season he beat Dimitrov, but was knocked out in the second round of both Masters Tournaments (Montreal and Cincy). Here at US Open the spaniard has been the marathon man, winning all three of his matches in 5 sets. He did not play great, he barely escaped with wins over poor opposition like Zopp, Ram and Smyczek. Granollers had more of a challenger level draw than a Grand Slam one, so he has been extremely lucky to get this far.
The thing here is that Nole is a player that likes to destroy opponents, his game is so consistent and error-free that inferior players have difficulties in winning 4 out of 6 points to get games against him. At the same time, Granollers is an inconsistent player, unforced error-prone that very often loses big. For example this year he has lost 1-6 2-6 2-6 to Dancevic or 1-6 0-6 to Paire. I don`t have the official stats, but I am pretty sure that the spaniard has lost the most sets at 0, 1 and 2 in the whole ATP tour this year. We can say that we have a meeting between the player who wins at the biggest margins and the player who looses at the biggest margins in the top 100.
Granollers has no weapons to counter Djokovic`s stable play and we should see an unforced error from him at almost every point. He has an inconsistent serve that can’t be trusted, so that won`t help him stay in the game (like for example big-serving Becker managed to do for one set against Nole in the second round). Especially against a fantastic returner like Nole, Granollers` serve will have no impact. Also, Marcel`s three 5 setters in the previous rounds will hurt him physically, as Nole will keep the ball in play and make him run from left to right. Winning at least 4 out of 6 points will be a struggle for Granollers in every game played.
These two met only once so far, in 2011 at Australian Open, when Nole won without any problems, 6-1 6-3 6-1. I watched the game (actually bet on Granollers to cover the spread at that time) – there were absolutely no solutions for Granollers to counter the serbian, and that should also be the case today. It`s not only the quality difference, but also the match-up. Form is also a factor that works in Djokovic`s advantage, as well as Marcel`s marathon matches that will surely tire him today.
Look for Nole to continue winning big, and he should cover the 10,5 handicap comfortable against a player like Granollers. There are no arguments for the spaniard to be competitive in this one. Pick the Djoker to win it something like 6-2 6-3 6-0.
Pick: Djokovic (-10,5)
Odds: 1.84 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 7.56
Event date: 3 September
