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No. 1 Novak Djokovic and No.2 Rafael Nadal will square off tonight with the US Open trophy up for grabs, with punters fighting their own battle to assure profit on the final. This should be a cracker!
Novak Djokovic did not have the best summer on hard courts by his standards. Semifinals at Montreal (knocked out by Nadal) and quarters at Cincinnati (defeated by Isner) are results below his absolute best level, but Nole still produced some quality tennis and it is not a surprise that he reached the final here at US Open. But the fact is that the serbian had a really easy draw up until this point, meeting only one top 20 player, Wawrinka, who gave him a hell of a fight in the semifinals. Novak needed 5 sets to defeat the swiss and he also lost one set in the quarters against Youzhny. He is not at his absolute best.
Nadal has been amazing since returning from his knee injury. Rafa posted an unbelievable 59-3 record this year, including being undefeated on hard. He won Montreal and Cincinnati (beating Djokovic in Canada) and lost only one set here at the US Open, against Kohlschreiber. Like Nole, Rafa did not have the toughest draw, also meeting only one top 20 player (Gasquet in semis), but he was extremely dominant, unlike the serbian. He`s moving well, hitting incredible shots, missing very few attempts and his serve has been untouchable.
If this were two years ago, I would jump on Djokovic like I have done numerous times in 2011. Back then, the serbian found a way to frustrate Nadal on his backhand and won 7 consecutive direct meetings, owning the match-up. But Rafa worked hard to find solutions and eventually he did. Djokovic does not have a great match-up against Rafa anymore, and this can be seen in the H2H: 21-15 for the spaniard, who won 5 out the last 6. This year the Head 2 Head says 2-1 for Nadal, 1-0 on hard courts.
Novak is shaky by his standards at the moment, that is obvious. Wawrinka had a huge chance to defeat him and he lost mostly because of the physical factor. Djokovic is not able to produce too many winners at the moment and he is also making some unforced errors. It is not a mistake to say that the easy draw is the main reason he got this far, he would have had huge trouble against an in-form Del Potro, Berdych or Murray.
Rafa is in better form at the moment and he shows no real weaknesses. His serve is fantastic, he barely makes any unforced errors and he displayed some very aggressive tennis here at the US Open, a style of play that always frustrates Novak (see Wawrinka in the semis). It is expected that Nadal will get the better of the Djoker in rallies, just like in Canada last month. Rafa is more confident and he is clearly playing the better tennis at the moment. It will probably be a close one, but in the end the spaniard, who is also more fresh, should capitalize on his advantages and take home the US Open trophy that will also come with an almost guaranteed year-end no.1 spot. Pick Nadal to win this in 4 close sets, he really has all the arguments to win this one and the odds are just great. My personal input is that this is a justified maximum stakes bet.
Pick: Nadal
Odds: 1.76 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 7.60
Event date: 9 September
