Thiem – Lopez

Dominic Thiem takes on Feliciano Lopez in the second round at the ATP Masters event in Shanghai. The bookmakers are viewing this as a very evenly matched encounter and it is hard to argue with that opinion.

Thiem did not make any noise in the Asian swing so far, playing his first tournament in Beijing last week and losing a one sided match with John Isner. Nevertheless, Thiem showed much better form in Shanghai, routing Yen Hsun Lu in two sets, 6-3 6-3 – despite Lu coming in confident after passing the qualifying tournament. Thiem did not concede a single break of serve, though he did face 3 break points.

Feliciano Lopez played some great tennis a couple of weeks ago in Kuala Lumpur, losing in the final to David Ferrer. He exited in the second round the following week, losing to Joao Souza in three sets, but it was somewhat expected, as the Spaniard did not have time to recover after his delayed final against Ferrer. Here in Shanghai Lopez played a solid match to defeat Andrey Kuznetsov 6-4 7-6. Lopez was excellent as usual on serve, facing a single break point – which, however, he could not save.

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Thiem leads the Head 2 Head 3-0 (2-0 on hard) and actually holds a 2-0 advantage this year, as the two players met in Miami and in Gstaad. Lopez seems to have problems playing Thiem, but it`s worth noting that both meetings this year were very close, with Thiem needing a deciding set in each one.

Both guys have their arguments to win this one and it’s unlikely that any one of them will be able to take it easily. Thiem and Lopez each served very well in the opening round, so at least a tiebreak is a real possibility. I would rate Lopez with a slightly higher chance to win on this surface, despite the H2H results, but I reckon the under / over market is the best bet on this clash – specifically the over.

I expect three sets to be played, just like it happened in the two Head 2 Head matches played this year, but the line gives us options for a two setter as well. My tip is over 23 games. Prediction: Dominic Thiem – Feliciano Lopez 5-7 6-3 6-7.

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Pick: over 23 games
Odds: 1.80 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 6.40
Event date: 14 October