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Local favorite Dominic Thiem takes on Spaniard Marcel Granollers in the Kitzbuhel quarterfinals.
At age 20, Thiem is one of the biggest talents on tour and finally emerged this season as a legitimate top 75 player, managing to even reach the Top 50. However his youth and lack of experience make him inconsistent, he still has a lot to learn and prior to Kitzbuhel has been in poor form. Here in Austria he defeated Souza and Vesely, but he did not prove he is back at his best level of tennis. Thiem had big problems against Souza and barely won the match in 3 sets, while Vesely was totally out of form and did not represent top opposition.
Granollers has his usual season in singles this year, alternating excellent performances (final in Cassablanca, semifinal in Chennai, 4th round at Roland Garros) with first round losses and poor matches. The spaniard is a streaky player but when he gets going and he finds his rhythm he is very hard to stop and can challenge anyone on his day. Marcel seemed to find some rhythm here in his first match at Kitzbuhel, easily dispatching a dangerous Schwartzman in 2 sets and it seems like this tournament could help him get back in form – he loves the venue and won here last year.
Dominic Thiem leads the H2H 2-0 and both meetings were this year on clay (the last one at Hamburg 3 weeks ago), so that is a massive argument for the young Austrian. However, both matches were close and Granollers was not playing his best tennis in either of them.
I can`t see Thiem reaching his first career ATP semifinal if he`s not in his best form, and right now he`s not. The H2H advantage is the main reason for which he is heavily favored by the odds, but the fact is he could have lost both of those matches and Granollers is looking better right now than he did at that time. Dominic plays at home but he struggled in his first two matches here, while the Spaniard loves this venue himself, looked good against Schwartzman has the experience on his side. Granollers has at least a 50% chance to win this, thus representing value at these odds, so my tip is Granollers to win. Prediction: Dominic Thiem – Marcel Granollers 6-2 4-6 3-6.
Pick: Granollers
Odds: 2.25 @ 10Bet
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 8.75
Event date: 1 August
from 3-1 in the first set to 3-6 you really have to be a big loser. i don’t now what is happening with your picks but you really are a total disaster
I can`t argue with what is obvious. However, things will turn around, I can promise you that, as I went trough this a lot of times before. Unfortunately it`s taking longer than expected.
I remember someone telling Ocean the same thing 2 months ago, and then he went on to have a brilliant July and I`m sure he will keep it up. We have a lot of work to do but both me and Ocean are good tipsters and we`ll get back to overall profit. Meanwhile the tipsters are improving themselves, so I feel there`s good value on the website right now. Cheers.
It occurs to me that your predictions are poorer whenever you are against the h2h stats. Maybe you should consider value history more? Just my two cents.
interesting observation. I usually put a lot of emphasys on the H2H and matchup, but maybe not enough, maybe not always. You are right, styles make matches, we also so Goffin today winning – he was the underdog but was 2-0 in H2H this year.