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Stanislas Wawrinka is the second favorite to lift the Madrid trophy according to the odds from the bookmakers, but he will have a tough challenge kick starting his campaign against Austrian rising start Dominic Thiem.
Twenty year old Thiem has been long considered one for the future in the tennis world, but this year the Austrian really started to show what he is capable of. Thiem is currently on a career high ranking of 70 in the ATP circuit and posted wins to a bunch of top 50 players, including taking a set from Andy Murray in Rotterdam. Dominic has a nice all around game, good serve, extremely solid forehand, he can mix it up and the surface in Madrid suits his game very well. Aside from his talent, Thiem impressed with his fighting spirit this year: from his 9 losses in 2014 only 3 came in 2 sets and only one was one-sided (5-7 0-6 vs. Gojowczyk in Brisbane, in January, where he also had some fitness issues).
The Austrian player is in good form lately, coming after a 3rd round in Barcelona (lost to finalist Giraldo) where he also passed the qualifications. Thiem backed that up with an even more impressive performance so far in Madrid, winning 3 games rather easily against very solid / in form players like L. Mayer or Tursunov. Of course, Wawrinka will be a different animal all together.
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Bet with the best odds and highest limits at Pinnacle. |
Stanislas is having the best season of his career, no doubt about that, and the fact that he backed up the Australian Open win with a trophy at the Monte Carlo Masters proves he can keep it up consistently at the highest level. Wawrinka has not played since Monte Carlo, but his tennis there was amazing and he is expected to challenge for the title in Madrid as well – especially considering that he was a finalist here last year.
Even though Wawrinka is clearly one of the top guys in the game right now and showed improved consistency as well, I still don`t think he can be considered a lock to cruise in the early rounds of big tournaments just yet – after all, he did lose matches to Golubev, Anderson or Dolgopolov this season and struggled against the likes of Kukushkin, Lajovic, Falla or Gimeno Traver. He was impressive at Monte Carlo, but there should be question marks if he can pull off 2 perfect big tournaments in a row – he hasn’t proved that yet. Thiem is a solid player showcasing some great tennis lately and he showed he can hold his own against anyone this season. The fact that this is the first match for Wawrinka and the first meeting between the two should also make the swiss a little more rusty and cautious in the beginning.
I expect Wawrinka to win, but taking all factors into account Thiem should be able to provide him with a tough test. My tip is Thiem to cover the 4,5 game handicap and the odds from Pinnacle for this bet are just great. Prediction: Stanislas Wawrinka – Dominic Thiem 7-6 6-4.
Pick: Thiem (+4,5 game handicap)
Odds: 2.27 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 8.89
Event date: 6 May
