Cibulkova – Cirstea

Dominika Cibulkova will take on Sorana Cirstea in a rather surprising WTA Madrid quarterfinals and both players will feel they have a good chance to reach the last 4.

Cibulkova entered Madrid on the back of a 1st round loss to Krejcikova in Prague, her first tournament on clay this year. However, she was not at her best in that match, coming after a won tournament in Katowice and Fed Cup action. Here in Madrid, Cibulkova defeated Radwanska, Garcia and Pavlyuchenkova, all three matches being very close. Dominika is playing well, but she`s not at her absolute top form.

Sorana Cirstea is a very talented power hitter, but she lacks consistency and has months or even years of dreadful results. It was the case in 2015 and Cirstea fell out of the Top 100, but the Romanian got a wildcard here in Madrid and took her chance. Cirstea won all of her matches in straight sets, defeating Jankovic, Kovinic and the in form Siegemund. She`s really in top form and this was announced by some decent results in the last few weeks.

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Cibulkova leads the Head 2 Head 3-1 but that`s to be expected, as Cirstea is rarely playing good tennis. I remember watching Cirstea’s only win over Cibulkova back in 2012 and after Dominika won the first set 7-6, she was absolutely destroyed 2-6 0-6, having no answer for Cirstea’s power – so the Romanian proved she CAN defeat her.

Cibulkova does not deserve to be a 1.40 – 1.45 favorite here. Cirstea’s ranking does not matter at all, as she is a streaky player with no middle ground, she`s either great or dirt poor. If she has a good week she can beat any player in the world, proving it over the years. Among others, she has a GS quarterfinal and a Masters final to her name. She was Top 25 in the world and she`s definitely Top 20 material (I would argue Top 10) skill wise.

This is one of those weeks when Cirstea is playing her best tennis and she actually played at a higher level than Cibulkova in this tournament. It wasn`t perfection, as she still had some ups and downs during matches, almost losing the second set to Siegemund last round after leading 6-4 3-0 – but it was some real good tennis overall. Cibulkova on the other hand was pushed to the limits in all matches. She had a thriller with Pavlyuchenkova last round, lost a set 0-6 to Garcia and her win over Radwanska was impressive, but the Pole is not exactly in her best form right now and clay is not her favorite surface.

If Cirstea turns up for this match and keeps up the level he showed in her three matches, she has more than an honest shot to win this and if she eliminates those short black out periods of play, I feel she is actually the favorite. A fast clay like the one in Madrid will also help her power shot style of play.

Obviously this is far from a lock, especially as we`re talking about women’s tennis. Cirstea can lose 6-1 6-2 as well as she can win 6-1 6-2, but I feel her chances are gravitating around 50% here, so a bet on her is clearly worth it. My tip is Cirstea to win. Prediction: Dominika Cibulkova – Sorana Cirstea 6-3 5-7 1-6.

Pick: Cirstea
Odds: 3.03 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 5
Possible profit: 10.15
Event date: 5 May