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Donald Young and Marcos Baghdatis square off in the first round at Wimbledon, with the match potentially holding some interesting betting value.
Young has been a non factor on grass so far, losing both of his matches (Coric, Dolgopolov) and he`s actually on a 4 match losing streak, dating back from mid – May. The American had a pretty good early part of the season on hard courts, but right now he is clearly far from his best form. Young is not really a grass court player, as his 11-22 career win-loss record on the surface suggests – and this is at all levels, because on the ATP Tour he is 5-16!
Baghdatis on the other hand is a seasoned player on the green and he can produce his best tennis on the surface. The Cypriot proved this yet again this year, almost beating Nadal in Stuttgart and blowing out his opposition in Nottingham (including Ferrer) until he had to retire after just 3 games in the semifinals, while already leading eventual tournament winner Istomin. Marcos suffered a left calf injury and immediately retired in order not to risk Wimbledon. Early prognosis was not conclusive, but in the end it seems that he will be ready to play and the odds on a Baghdatis win are dropping.
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The Head 2 Head is 1-0 for Young, a victory on hard courts in 2011. Obviously, grass will be a totally different scenario and the form of the two players is also completely changed ahead of this one, so no real relevance for the Head 2 Head.
Looking at the current shape of the two players and at the surface, Baghdatis would normally be a 1.30 favorite here. However, he`s uncertain physical state determined the bookies to open with huge odds on Marcos. While 1.60 might not hold extraordinary value, the odds for a 3-0 or 3-1 win become massive and are worth a try as far as I`m concerned.
I do believe Baghdatis will be ready to play and if he is, all logic would suggest an easy win. If he`s not, I really can`t see him playing more than a couple of games, because you just can’t play trough a calf injury. Small – medium stakes on this one, but the return of investment could be pretty good. My tip is Baghdatis to win with a 1,5 set handicap. Prediction: Donald Young – Marcos Baghdatis 6-7 3-6 4-6.
Wimbledon live streaming from most courts available for players at Bet365.com.
Pick: Baghdatis -1,5 set hc.
Odds: 2.22 @ Betsson
Stake: 5
Possible profit: 6.1
Event date: 29 June
