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Odds may look strange when you`re looking at this game, with Shamrock Rovers being placed ad favorites at odds just over 2.00, despite the fact that after 22 rounds they are on 5th place, trailing 2nd placed Dundalk by 7 points.
The thing is that Dundalk is a huge surprise in this year`s Irish Premier League, nobody expected them to have such a good season and people keep thinking that they will finally show their lack of quality and start losing games. I doubt that will happen so deep in the season, as Dundalk looks the typical small but organized and working team that sometimes makes noise in weaker leagues. They play well-balanced football and are very good on the counters.
Shamrock is better squad-wise, no doubt about it, but the visitors underperformed mighty this season. At the moment they are in solid form, they picked it up recently and they are undefeated in their last 12 (!!!) league games. Actually, they only have two losses this season, but the draws have been killing them. They are very poor offensively and can’t score, but they have a fantastic defense that keeps them in games. Shamrock has no less than 11 draws so far in the Premier League, that is half of the games they played.
As far as team news are concerned, Dundalk only has the old long-term injury of Ward to worry about, with Mountney and Massey being doubtful. Shamrock will not be able to count on Elebert and Quigley, while Steward is a doubt.
Shamrock is unbeaten in the last 13 games against Dundalk, but of course this year the situation is different than the one in the past. In the past three meetings (all of them this season), Shamrock won twice at home and got a draw at Dundalk. Only TWO goals have been scored in these three matches combined (1-0, 1-0, 0-0)!
This game will be extremely tight, and a draw looks the most probable outcome between the 1×2 lines, but I am much more convinced of an under. Shamrock has the best defense and one of the worst offenses in the league and they should be able to contain Dundalk just like in the past three games this season. The hosts are not able to take advantage of their counterattacking skills against a solid and reliable defense like the one Rovers have. Both teams come after low scoring games, and I don`t see the trend breaking here, in this game that has a huge importance. Look for a very hard fought, tense match, with no risk-taking from either of the two sides. Nobody will be able to dominate and as a consequence we shouldn’t see too many goal scoring chances. 0-0 actually seems the most probable result here, but either team could be able to snatch a goal and defend the advantage for the rest of the game.
Pick: under 2,5
Odds: 1.71 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 5.68
Event date: 2 August
