Brown – Haider-Maurer

Grass court expert Dustin Brown takes on Andreas Haider-Maurer in an interesting first round clash at ATP Halle.

Dustin Brown is one of the last few players who play serve & volley and can call themselves grass court experts. He and Mahut are the main exponents of this seemingly lost species and Brown will remember for his whole life beating Nadal 6-4 6-1 last year here in Halle. However, this didn`t help Brown to perform too well in his first grass court tournament last week at Stuttgart. He did pass qualies, beating Berrer on the way, but lost in the first round to an inconsistent Janowicz, who wasn`t anywhere close to his best level.

Brown is a hugely inconsistent player himself and this hurt him last week, as he wasn`t able to stay consistent on serve or paint the lines in a regular manner. He needs to find some groove if he`s to have a decent grass court season and time is already ticking.

Despite having a good season so far, Haider Maurer lost form recently and he enters Halle on the back of 5 consecutive losses. He prefers clay and hard courts, didn`t play too much grass court tennis in his career, but he does have a good style for this surface, with a solid serve and a powerful forehand. Proof of that is his performance last week in Stuttgart – despite losing in the first round, Haider-Maurer pushed eventual semifinalist Monfils into two tiebreaks (6-7 6-7).

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The Head 2 Head is 1-0 for Haider-Maurer, but it was a challenger level win back in 2011 on indoor hard. The surface here in Halle is a big advantage for Brown and his serve and volley style will match up interestingly against Haider Maurer’s smart aggressive baseline play.

The bookies are giving Brown way too much credit here, there`s just no way he can be a 1.50 favorite against a solid player like Haider Maurer, not even on grass. Brown may be an expert on the green, but he`s way too inconsistent, he`s not in good form and had a poor season overall. He`s also by far the worse player between the pair. If the performances showed by the two players last week are any indication, Haider Maurer should take advantage of Brown’s inconsistency and his usual sudden drop in level to edge this one.

I was thinking to bet on a +1,5 set handicap for Haider Maurer with maximum stakes, but considering that both guys can be streaky and moody, I will invest 7 units on a straight Haider-Maurer win – surely the bet that holds the best value. If Brown finds his “grass court A game” he will win, but otherwise he`s not the favorite here. And that`s a huge “if”, as Brown brings in that level maybe once or twice a year. Prediction: Dustin Brown – Andreas Haider Maruer 6-4 3-6 5-7.

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Pick: Haider-Maurer
Odds: 2.75 @ William Hill
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 12.25
Event date: 15 June