Brown – Bellucci

Dustin Brown will meet local favorite Thomaz Bellucci in the first round of the Rio Olympics, first match on Sunday. The tennis tournament is being played outdoors on greenset hard.

This season has been somewhat of a breakout year for Brown, in the sense that he finally started performing week in week out, as opposed as only showing up on grass. The German is in great form, playing well on the green and surprisingly well in the tournaments after the grass court season, in Bastad and Gstaad. He reached the quarters in Bastad and the semifinals in Gstaad, on clay. He beat Bellucci in Gstaad a couple of weeks ago.

Bellucci reached the final at the Biela challenger last week, but he failed miserably in the last act, losing 6-7 2-6 against Gaio, despite the fact that he was a 1.20 favorite. It has been a decent year for Bellucci but nothing special, he has a 50% winning percentage for the season, ATP and challengers combined. Now he will have to keep his nerve at home, where the pressure will be on him to deliver.

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The Head 2 Head is tied at 1-1, but the only relevant meeting was the one played just a couple of weeks ago, in Gstaad – which Brown won 2-6 6-7 6-1. And he did it on clay, which on paper is his worst surface.

Home court advantage will be important for Bellucci, with all the traveling, adaptation time and climate change that Brown needs to face. However, knowing Bellucci, playing at home could very well be a disadvantage. He`s a real headcase and the pressure of representing his country in the Olympics, at home, could bring out the worst in him.

I can very well see the free flowing, big hitting Brown coming into this match and playing his attacking game with no stress, while Bellucci will crumble under pressure. He does it more often than not and there can`t be any more pressure on him than what he will face today.

It seems that home court advantage is the only reason for which Bellucci is favored in this clash, because otherwise he`s been a worse player than Brown this year, is in worse form and just lost to Dustin a couple of weeks ago on clay – a surface that should have given Bellucci an important advantage. The GreenSet hard here in Brazil doesn`t give anybody an edge.

Both guys can be inconsistent and this match is up for grabs, but that`s exactly why Brown’s odds have value. Depending on how both guys turn up Bellucci could win, but it`s hard to argue that Brown has a small edge in this match, despite the odds. Fact is that he should really win the match if he plays his best tennis, he`s unstoppable at his best and he played a lot of time at that level this year. But there are other possibilities as well, with him winning by not playing his best tennis.

My tip is Brown to win, medium stakes on the bet. Prediction: Dustin Brown – Thomaz Bellucci 6-2 3-6 6-3.

Pick: Brown
Odds: 2.38 @ Unibet
Stake: 6
Possible profit: 8.28
Event date: 7 August