Elfsborg – Inter Baku

Elfsborg hosts Inter Baku in Sweden in what is a very evenly matched tie in the Europa League 2nd qualifying round. Still, Elfsborg has odds as low as 1.50 to win this at home.

Elfsborg had a season to forget last year, finishing only 6th in not such a strong Swedish league and struggling to win games. They qualified for Europe via the Cup, which they won vs. Helsingborg. This year Elfsborg is doing better and they are on the 3rd place after 14 rounds, but the title already seems out of their grasp and again they are struggling to win games. Elfsborg has just 1 win in the last 5 league matches and just two points in the last three. In the weekend they had a horrible performance vs. the worst team in the league, Brommapojkarna, drawing 2-2 at home after being down 2-0 in the 80th minute! The fact that they still build their game around 38 year old Anders Svensson might not be enough for this level anymore.

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Inter Baku is coming from an emerging Azeri league, they finished 2nd behing Qarabag but have aspirations for the title. They have a very good team with some top class players like Reynaldo (ex Anderlecht) or Davide Dias (signed this summer from Maritimo). The Azeri team already played a tie in Europe and they dispatched FC Tiraspol by winning both legs: 3-2 away, 3-1 at home. The owners are pumping money into this team with the main objective to perform in Europe and reach the group stages of Europa League this year.

I am almost shocked that Elfsborg is getting such low odds. They are a team with a higher reputation and a good team at home, maybe a little better overall also (but this is debatable). They also are playing competitive football right now in Sweden while the Azeri league has not started. But are these advantages enough to warrant a bet on them? I think no way. Inter Baku can challenge this team of Elfsborg on any day and they also have 2 competitive matches under their belt against Tiraspol, which is good. In my opinion Inter Baku has at least the same individual quality as Elfsborg and I do not trust Elfsborg as a team either at the moment They are playing sub-par for 2 years now and they are in very poor form at the moment, the last 3 games they played were afwil. They often struggle to win games and end up drawing. Inter Baku must be considered a favorite to get at least a draw, can surely profit from the bad form of the hosts and I am sure the odds on Elfsborg will go up during the day. My tip will be Inter Baku x2 double chance. Correct score prediction: Elfsborg – Inter Baku 1-2.

Pick: x2
Odds: 2.40 @ Bwin
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 11.20
Event date: 17 July