Mertens – Wozniacki

Elise Mertens from Belgium and Caroline Wozniacki from Denmark will square off Wednesday night with a place in the grand Australian Open final on the line.

Mertens has had an amazing tournament and an amazing 2018 as a whole so far. The 22 year old Belgian is riding an 11 match winning streak (claiming the title at Hobart earlier this month) and has not lost a set so far at the Australian Open. Mertens defeated Kuzmova, Gavrilova, Cornet, Martic and Svitolina, with her 6-4 6-0 quarterfinal win over Svitolina being a highly impressive result.

Caroline Wozniacki is coming after a three set win against Carla Suarez Navarro in the quarterfinals, but Caroline won pretty easily despite losing a set (6-0 6-7 6-2). It was the second set Wozniacki lost this tournament, the other one being in the second round against Jana Fett, which was the most difficult match Caro had so far. Wozniacki’s other three matches were all easy wins against Buzarnescu, Bertens and Rybarikova.

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Wozniacki won the only H2H meeting, which was last year in Bastad on clay. Wozniacki won that in three sets, but it doesn`t hold any relevance ahead of this meeting. A matchup analysis will say that Mertens is the more aggressive player, and she will hope that her style can give her an advantage against the defensive baseliner Wozniacki.

Mertens is playing high quality tennis for some time now, but her quarterfinal destruction of Svitolina was truly impressive. Mertens served very well and picked her spots to attack, taking all rhythmn away from Svitolina. The Ukrainean blamed a hip injury for her performance, but fact is that Mertens played a great match.

If Mertens brings the same balanced attacking game in this clash, she will create problems for Wozniacki, who can struggle against aggressive baseliners with strong serve and forehand. Wozniacki has been in great form herself in this tournament, but far from untouchable, showing some weaknesses and vulnerabilities during some of her matches, particularly against Fett and Suarez Navarro.

Wozniacki obviously is the more experienced player and she will hope that will give her an edge – and it should. But Mertens is playing great tennis consistently for weeks now, and it`s unlikely she will go down without a fight.

My tip will be Mertens to cover the +4 (asian) game handicap. This line is available at more than a dozen bookies, but if you can`t find it, I would bet on the +3.5 line with lower stakes – maybe 6 units or so. Prediction: Elise Mertens – Caroline Wozniacki 4-6 6-2 5-7.

Pick: Mertens +4 games
Odds: 1.85 @ 18Bet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 6.80
Event date: 25 January