England – Italy

England and Italy have no margin for error tonight, with a defeat most likely shattering the qualification chances of the losing team in a group with Uruguay.

England’s last match with Honduras was just painful to watch. An abysmal performance for the British side, who was unable to create any goal scoring chances despite playing with an extra man for half an hour against a very accessible opponent. However, we shouldn`t judge England on that performance alone, as the team played pretty good football under Roy Hodgson, especially on the defensive end, and the squad is pretty good. For the first time in many years England has pace, with the likes of Sterling, Oxlade-Chamberlain, Barkley, Sturridge or Lallana supporting Wayne Rooney. Many of these players did not take the pitch against Honduras, so expect England to be better today.

Italy has been simply dreadful in the pre-World Cup friendlies. They got their first win in 8 matches a couple of days ago against Fluminense (5-3), hardly a match to be taken as a serious reference. Italy`s recent performances include draws with Armenia, Ireland or Luxembourg (!!), all at home, all with the best players starting the games. Italy has serious problems lately and they are in a much worse position than people apparently think. Friendlies are friendlies, but Italy really looked bad, they need to sort things out, and a match with England might not be the best opportunity to do so. On the bright side, Italy has lost just once in the last 8 outings, so at least they can hold out for draws.

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Team news & lineups

England will miss Oxlade Chamberlain, while Welbeck is a slight doubt. Italy won`t be able to count on De Sciglio.

England: Hart – Johnson, Cahill, Jagielka, Baines – Gerrard, Henderson – Sterling, Lallana, Sturridge – Rooney.

Italy: Buffon – Abate, Bonucci, Bonucci, Chiellini – De Rossi, Candreva, Pirlo, Marchisio – Balotelli, Cassano.

I really like the projected England lineup here, Hodgson seems to have finally understood that this team can do damage if the players with pace start the games. I find it hard to erase the Honduras match from memory, but even so I think England might just have enough to outplay Italy here. Squadra Azzura has been so bad in the last year, their defense can`t be trusted and without De Sciglio it could be even worse. England can defend very well, that`s a sure thing, and I reckon that against this shaky italian back line they could bang in the goals with Sturridge, Sterling, Lallana and Rooney up front. A draw is not out of the question, that`s for sure, but I can never see Italy winning this one. If England wins they will also get revenge after being knocked out by the Squadra Azzura in Euro 2012 at penalties. My tip will be England Draw no bet and the odds are dropping on this one. Prediction: England – Italy 1-0.

Pick: England Draw No Bet
Odds: 1.94 @ Unibet
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 8.46
Event date: 14 June