England – Scotland

England and Scotland will face off in a huge Six Nations clash at Twickenham, which could well decide the 2017 Championship. An England win will see them lift the trophy for the second time in a row, while a Scottish win will keep things very much alive for the last round of the tournament.

Besides the Six Nations, the Calcutta Cup (England vs Scotland annual) and the Triple Crown (one of England, Scotland, Wales or Ireland winning all matches against the other) are also on the line. Not lastly, England will tie New Zealand’s record of consecutive wins at International level with a victory, so the occasion could hardly be bigger.

Despite riding a 17 match winning streak and being hands down the 2nd best team in the world, England has not impressed in this tournament. They struggled to win against France and in Wales. Even Italy gave them a huge scare at Twickenham, though that match had special circumstances, with Italy employing a brilliant but weird tactic, making the game a complete circus. On the bright side, England still won every game and showed the ability to turn it up when it mattered.

Scotland did brilliantly to come back in the second half and defeat Wales 29-13 at Murrayfield last round. It was their second win of the tournament after beating Ireland on opening day and it was even more impressive looking at the fact that they missed a number of key players, which is set to happen again today. Scotland’s improvement can not be denied and they are legit Championship contenders, but their only road match this year has been less impressive, with France beating them by 6 points in Paris.

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Team news & lineups:

England welcomes back Billy and Marko Vunipola and their squad looks scary good ahead of this match. Their main problem is that Farrel is doubtful. He`s expected to play, but it will be a game time decision.

Scotland is dealing with injuries to key players after their second round game against France. Captain Laidlaw is out, as well as Strauss, Maitland and WP Nel. What`s more, Hardie has also been ruled out. They coped very well against Wales, but Twickenham will be a different test.

England: 15 Mike Brown, 14 Jack Nowell, 13 Jonathan Joseph, 12 Owen Farrell, 11 Elliot Daly, 10 George Ford, 9 Ben Youngs, 8 Nathan Hughes, 7 James Haskell, 6 Maro Itoje, 5 Courtney Lawes, 4 Joe Launchbury, 3 Dan Cole, 2 Dylan Hartley (c), 1 Joe Marler

Scotland: 15 Stuart Hogg, 14 Tommy Seymour, 13 Huw Jones, 12 Alex Dunbar, 11 Tim Visser, 10 Finn Russell, 9 Ali Price, 8 Ryan Wilson, 7 Hamish Watson, 6 John Barclay (c), 5 Jonny Gray, 4 Richie Gray, 3 Zander Fagerson, 2 Fraser Brown, 1 Gordon Reid

The last 7 H2H meetings were all won by England. Scotland haven`t beaten their rivals since 2008 and they haven`t won at Twickenham since 1983. They haven`t won the Triple Crown since 1990. History is definitely not on their side and beating England on the road will be, as usual, a monumental task.

England’s performance in this Six Nations was rather underwhelming – but the fact that they still beat the likes of France and Wales despite not being at their best speaks volumes about their quality. The recent Italy game is not relevant, as it was a strange one, with England basically not allowed to play rugby.

The English are due a big performance and the occasion demands it, so chances are we will see Eddie Jones’ side stepping on the gas. They proved they had it in them in every match, turning it up when the situation asked for it – but this time they will try to do it from the start and keep it up. If that happens, an injury plagued Scotland will be in serious trouble.

England has a clear cut advantage in the forward pack and Scotland has to avoid scrums and mauls at all cost to have a chance in this game – but that is a hard thing to do. Kicking wise the two teams are more or less equal (though Laidlaw’s absence hurts Scotland a lot and could cost them a few points), while in the back row Scotland seems to have a small advantage. The Scots have the best wing play in Europe, but England’s backs defend as well as anybody in world rugby. If the English don`t give time and space to Scotland out wide, the visitors will have no other solution to turn to.

The biggest difference between the two teams however is on the bench. England has amazing depth and the return of Billy and Marko Vunipola gives them even more of a boost. England’s bench is scary good with some of the best players in the world out there, while Scotland has real problems with all the injuries and their bench is not good at all.

The Three Lions scored 5 of their 9 tries of the tournament in the last 11 minutes of games (!!!). That`s an amazing stats, so you would expect them to continue that trend against a weakened Scottish bench.

This should be a pretty tight game for the most part, but if England is even slightly ahead at the 60 minute mark, they should win this handily with the players coming on in the last 20 minutes or so.

Most people are backing Scotland to keep this close and I`d agree with that bet if they were fully healthy, but injuries to key players will be too much to overcome at Twickenham. Even if the Scots take it to England and keep it close for an hour or so, England’s bench can easily score 2 tries in the last 20 minutes and boost the margin of victory to 15 – 20 points.

Not lastly, home court advantage has made a huge difference so far in this Six Nations, with teams playing so much better at home than away. It will give the Three Lions a huge boost, especially with the occasion being so massive and the crowd expected to be completly mental. My tip is England to cover the 11,5 handicap. Prediction: England – Scotland 34 – 18.

Pick: England -11,5
Odds: 1.91 @ Betsafe
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 8.19
Event date: 11 March