England – Uruguay

Few would have thought that England will be out of the Rugby World Cup before even playing the last Pool game, but the Three Lions have ruined the hopes of the nation and will only play for pride against Uruguay – hoping to at least end their campaign with their heads up high.

Losing to Wales and Australia was a disaster for the host nation, but today most experts are expecting to see an unleashed England team in what is probably Stuart Lancaster’s last game in charge. The Brits did not play particularly poor in the RWC, but mistakes and the bad luck of having the group of death seales their fate. The 13-33 loss to Australia in the last match has surely demolished morale for the Three Lions.

Uruguay is the worst team in the World Cup and they did not even score a try before losing 15-47 to Fiji in the last match, but they showed heart and managed to avoid massive scorelines. 9-54 against Wales and 3-65 against Australia might not exactly be honorable results, but Uruguay defended with their lives and avoided scorelines going towards 100 points. It remains to be seen if Uruguay can recover physically after playing an intense game against Fiji just 5 days ago.

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Team news & lineups:

England has shuffled with the squad and positioning of the players big time ahead of this clash. Lancaster made 8 changes to the side that was blown out by Australia. Uruguay will only make two changes to the lineup that lost against Fiji 5 days ago, which is surprising and might hurt them physically. The good news for them is that key man Ormaechea is available despite being red carded against Fiji.

England: 15 Alex Goode, 14 Anthony Watson, 13 Henry Slade, 12 Owen Farrell, 11 Jack Nowell, 10 George Ford, 9 Danny Care, 8 Nick Easter, 7 Chris Robshaw (c), 6 James Haskell, 5 Geoff Parling, 4 Joe Launchbury, 3 Dan Cole, 2 Tom Youngs, 1 Mako Vunipola

Uruguay: 15 Gaston Mieres, 14 Santiago Gibernau, 13 Joaquin Prada, 12 Andres Vilaseca, 11 Rodrigo Silva, 10 Felipe Berchesi, 9 Agustín Ormaechea, 8 Alejandro Nieto, 7 Matias Beer, 6 Juan Manuel Gaminara, 5 Jorge Zerbino, 4 Santiago Vilaseca (c), 3 Mario Sagario, 2 Carlos Arboleya, 1 Mateo Sanguinetti

With England desperate to save some honor and Uruguay tired, everything points to a huge win by the host nation. That might well happen, but the handicap and under over lines are simply way too high. And one can`t be absolutely sure that England will even go guns blazing, as the disappointment might be just too massive in order to allow them to play freely.

The biggest win in the RWC was South Africa – USA 64-0 and England honestly barely looks capable to score 60. Considering that Uruguay will be tired and England will likely play an intense game, I also don`t expect the visitors to score any tries – they did not do that against Wales (63 total points) or Australia (68 total points) either. With Uruguay held under 10 points, I see no way for this game to go over 80 points. It should finish well under. My tip is under 79,5 points. Prediction: England – Uruguay 59 – 3.

Pick: under 79,5 points
Odds: 1.90 @ Bet365
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 8.1
Event date: 10 October