England – Wales

England and Wales meet in arguably the biggest match in the Rugby World Cup so far, due to the competition being held in Great Britain, due to the rivalry and, maybe most importantly, because it is a do or die game in the Group of death – which also contains Australia.

England was a little bit scrappy in the opening game of the Rugby World Cup, but they eventually clicked in the last 20 minutes and got a solid 35-11 win over a good rugby Nation like Fiji. Despite the scoreline, England was more impressive in defense, holding a top offensive side like Fiji to 11 points. The offense was shaky and only did the job at the end, when the Pacific side started to lose steam.

Wales wasn`t particularly impressive against Uruguay, probably the worst team in the Rugby World Cup. The Welsh fell behind 0-6 before starting to slowly peg at the Uruguay defense, but the 54-9 win wasn`t a great sign for the Brits. Unfortunately for Wales, the victory came with huge prices, as they gained additional injuries to an already depleted side. It truly seems like injuries have destroyed this RWC campaign for Wales before it really began.

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Lineups:

England: 15 Mike Brown, 14 Anthony Watson, 13 Brad Barritt, 12 Sam Burgess, 11 Jonny May, 10 Owen Farrell, 9 Ben Youngs, 8 Billy Vunipola, 7 Chris Robshaw (c), 6 Tom Wood, 5 Courtney Lawes, 4 Geoff Parling, 3 Dan Cole, 2 Tom Youngs, 1 Joe Marler

Wales: 15 Liam Williams, 14 George North, 13 Scott Williams, 12 Jamie Roberts, 11 Hallam Amos, 10 Dan Biggar, 9 Gareth Davies, 8 Taulupe Faletau, 7 Sam Warburton (c), 6 Dan Lydiate, 5 Alun Wyn Jones, 4 Bradley Davies, 3 Tomas Francis, 2 Scott Baldwin, 1 Gethin Jenkins

We know England will play this game in a safe and pragmatic manner, going mostly for penalties, making sure they don`t give Wales space to exploit. Out of the two teams, Wales should be the one to open the game up more, but their injury status will prevent them for holding too much possession and territory. They are not at their best and will have to adapt to the English game.

Expect a typical Six Nations game, with lots of penalties and few tries. Wales misses its two best kickers, so that will make it even more difficult for them to put points on the board – especially considering that tries are likely to come hard fought, near the touchline, making conversions that much harder. The stakes are huge, with the loser likely to get knocked out from the group stage, so an underish game is expected. The bookies did their job, the under / over line is not particularly high, but this should still be an under. 4 of the last 5 meetings (from 2012 onwards) finished with under 37,5 points and this one seems the most likely of those games to be low scoring.

My tip is under 37,5 points and I believe England should win as well – though the spread could be difficult to cover. Prediction: England – Wales 18 – 13.

Pick: under 37,5 points
Odds: 1.90 @ Bet365
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 7.2
Event date: 26 September