Betdistrict.com
After his two wins against Federer and Berdych, Ernests Gulbis might feel he is being treated unfairly by the bookmakers, who are predicting Djokovic to have an easy win and are giving him odds under 1.15. Surely Gulbis will strive to prove the doubters wrong again, but Djokovic is the man to beat in tennis right now and will use everything he has to fend off the resilient Latvian.
Gulbis has steadily improved his level of play in the last year after engaging in a serious training program and his form has really peaked in this years’ Roland Garros. The talented latvian played some amazing tennis in the last 10 days and his last two wins were nothing short of impressive: a 5 set success against an in-form Roger Federer in the 4th round and a 6-3 6-2 6-4 pulverization of Tomas Berdych in the semifinals. The fact that Gulbis backed up his win over Fedex with a marvelous performance against Berdych is a good indicator of his state of mind, form and morale at the moment. Against the Czech player, Gulbis was hitting winners all over the place, barely putting a foot wrong and it looked obvious from the first 2-3 games of the match that Ernests will have a field day. According to his statements, Gulbis is feeling “fitter than ever and totally confident”.
 |
Bet with the best odds and highest limits at Pinnacle. |
Djokovic has lost a single set in the tournament so far, a tiebreak against Cilic in the 3rd round, but Nole easily won that match and the ones that followed, including a 4th round destruction of Jo Wilfried Tsonga. In the quarterfinals he defeated the big serving Raonic 7-5 7-6 6-4 without the outcome ever being in question. The Serbian is playing some of his best tennis right now, moving well, returning excellent, barely making a few unforced errors per set.
The H2H is 4-1 for Djokovic and he has not lost a set in his 4 wins against Gulbis. However, the last meeting was in 2011 and right now Gulbis is a massively improved version of his old self, so circumstances are different. On clay the H2H is 1-0 for Nole, a 7-5 7-6 7-5 win in the 2008 Roland Garros.
Gulbis’t talent can’t be but under question and it’s obvious that on his day he can challenge and defeat even the best players in the world. He proved that here in Paris and he also showed excellent cinsistency + mental strength, things that he previously lacked and dragged him down. I did not trust Gulbis against Federer and Berdych but this time I will back him to at least trouble Djokovic, despite the fact that the Serbian is another level of opposition and has a very good return of serve, which could be useful against the Latvian. I expect Djokovic to win this but it will be very tough. Serve alone will allow Ernests to stay close in every set and his all around offensive game will also put pressure on Djokovic, it`s a known fact that the Djoker does not fancy playing against attacking players and big hitters. If Gulbis will manage to keep his unforced errors low again and will serve like in the last two matches, he should have an easy time covering the handicap set by the bookmakers – especially that from what we’ve seen for him lately he will surely fight for every point and every game. Gulbis +6 handicap seems like a really solid bet, so that will be my tip for this semifinal. Prediction: Ernests Gulbis – Novak Djokovic 3-6 6-3 5-7 6-7.
Pick: Gulbis (+6 handicap)
Odds: 2.02 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 9.18
Event date: 6 June
