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Ernests Gulbis will feel he has a chance to upset Roger Federer in the Roland Garros 4th round, but the experienced swiss will want to use his flair and experience in order to record a solid win over an in-form player.
Gulbis has finally started to reach his potential this year. A very talented player, the latvian did not always have the best work ethic, but he made some changes last season and results are starting to come. Gulbis has a fantastic 27-10 win/loss record this year, winning two titles at Marseille and two weeks ago at Nice. His form on clay is great, prior to the Nice title he reached the Rome 3rd round, Madrid QF and Barcelona semis. If we add the fact that Ernests played very well in Paris, losing just one set along the way, we can draw the conclusion that he is a very dangerous player for the top guys at the moment.
Indeed he is, but I feel he is a little excessively pumped up right now. Gulbis did not get too many serious wins this year. Aside from beating inconsistend guys like Dolgopolov or Janowicz, his only solid results were against an out of form and injured Del Potro, against Dimitrov and against Gasquet. Maybe we can add Cilic to the mix. He Here in Roland Garros he had poor opposition (Kubot, Bagnis, Stepanek) and had problems at times, especially in the first round against Kubot. Not lastly, Grand Slams are totally different than the rest of the tournaments and Gulbis has always choked in best of 5 matches, not being able to be consistent for such a long time. Even this year, in top form, he took a wooping beating from Querrey in the Australian Open 2nd round.
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After a horrible 2013 by his standards, Federer played surprisingly well this season so far. With a 28-6 win/loss record he challenged and defeated the top guys (Djokovic, Murray), reached finals, won tournaments. Even on clay he played the Monte Carlo final, almost winning against Wawrinka, with Monte Carlo being traditionally his worst tournament. Recently his wife gave birth to a pair of twins and Roger skipped Madrid, than lost early in Rome, but here in Paris he looked very solid, cruising trough the first two rounds (Lacko, Schwartzmann) before losing a set to Tursunov (7-5 6-7 6-2 6-4). Despite the lost set it was a very good match for Federer, it was just that Tursunov caught fire at the end of the second set with his serve and power shots. The only time Federer lost his rhythm was against Schwartzmann (6-3 6-4 6-4), but he had the match under control and was probably trying out some things.
The H2H is 2-1 for Federer (1-1 on clay), all matches were in 2010 and were close, but none was in a Grand Slam.
I have seen this scenario way too many times to be fooled by Gulbis’ good form. These newcomers always enter the match pumped up, playing their best tennis and getting low odds from the bookies, but end up losing due to lack of experience and inability to keep up that level for a best out of 5 match. Federer might not be the player he was 4-5 years ago, he started losing early in Slams sometimes (Stakhovsky, Robredo), but those were very rare occasions. Roger is in very good form this season, he`s enjoying his tennis and the fast courts at Roland Garros alowed him to play his game here in Paris. His experience should easily allow him to frustrate an inconsistent Gulbis and take him out of his confort zone, while the rest of his solid game should do the rest. The fact that he just became a father for the second time is not an issue, the last time this happened he went on to win Roland Garros and Wimbledon. My tip is Roger Federer to win and cover the 1,5 set handicap as well. I just love these odds and I will approach the tip with maximum stakes, Gulbis still has a long way to go to prove his worth on the big stage. Prediction: Ernests Gulbis – Roger Federer 6-7 6-4 3-6 4-6.
Pick: Federer (-1,5 set handicap)
Odds: 2.02 @ Sbobet
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 10.2
Event date: 1 June
