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This should be a tight matchup between 10th placed Espanyol and 14th placed Granada, but the hosts do deserve to be favored by the bookies (~1.90 odds) and apparently have the first chance to get the three points.
Espanyol was in the top 4 zone for a long time this season, but slowly faded away recently as they simply do not have the quality to challenge for the European places. Espanyol lost 6 out of the last 9 matches in all competitions, winning 2 (Alcoron, Celta Vigo) and drawing one. The last 4 games saw Espanyol losing 3 times without scoring and getting a draw against Valencia. Strictly in LA Liga, the hosts have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses in the last 5 matches. In the last round Espanyol managed to lose 2-0 to last placed Betis. Bottom line, the team is in really bad form. Espanyol is one of the most defensive teams in the Spanish top tier as they barely score one goal per game in average, but do defend well (29 goals allowed in 22 rounds).
Granada is even more defensive minded than Espanyol, posting a goal difference of 20-29 and scoring just 7 goals in 10 road matches so far. The visitors are also in bad form with a disappointing record of 1 win, 1 draw and 4 losses in the last 6 matches. Last time out Granada suffered a disheartening 1-2 defeat at home at the hands of Celta Vigo. The manager was pretty confident in the press conference prior to this game, but it`s hard to see why.
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Team news and lineups
Capdevila and Alfonso are the only absentees for Espanyol. Granada will have to do without Ighalo, while Garcia will be a game time decision.
Espanyol: Casilla – J. Lopez, Colotto, Moreno, Fuentes – D. Lopez, Victor Sanchez – Simao, Stuani – Sergio Garcia, Cordoba
Granada: Roberto – Nyom, Mainz, J. Murillo, Angulo – Recio, Iturra, Fran Rico – Piti, Brahimi – El-Arabi
The last three matches between the two teams ended with under 2,5 goals and this looks very likely to happen again. Two defensive and out of form teams who can barely score a goal lately playing in what should be a balanced encounter, what else can you expect aside from a low scoring game? I can`t see any reasons for which the over could realistically happen aside from the unpredictability factor in sport. Of course, anything can happen, especially with the under/over line, but there are no pre-game arguments for a high scoring game. This bet seems pretty simple and solid so I don`t think there`s much more to say here except it`s worth high stakes, at some great odds. My tip is under 2,5 goals. Prediction: Espanyol – Granada 1-0.
Pick: under 2,5 goals
Odds: 1.69 @ Sbobet
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 6.21
Event date: 7 February
