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Sunday afternoon football in Primera Division between two teams with nothing left to fight for … with Espanyol Barcelona hosting Rayo Valecano in the 35th round of the Spanish La Liga.
Espanyol (who lost only 1 of the last 8 games, vs. Barcelona) is coming after a 2-1 win in Granada, but they sweated big time for the win … got it with a late goal and overall were second best to Granada in that game. It was the first win in 3 games for Espanyol and they will be happy to come back at home, where they are one of the better teams of Primera. However, lately Espanyol has been disappointing at home, winning only 1 of the last 5 matches, so their 8-5-4 statline does not quite suggest their current struggles. Mattioni will be the only absentee for Espanyol Barcelona in this match.
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Rayo Vallecano was dreaful in away games lately, losing 6 of the last 7. They have the second worst defense in Primera Division on the road, allowing well over 2 goals per game in average … 40 in 17 matches. Visitors are coming after a very good performance vs. Valencia, a 1-1 draw and are in generally good form, but keep on losing away from home. Rayo also has a lot of injuries and suspensions problems ahead of this match … Baptistao, Morcillo (sent off last round), Amaya and Alvarez are all out … Ba and Raul Baena are questionable.
I can see an open game of football with a fair number of goalscoring chances. Rayo Vallecano is conceding goal after goal on the road and is one of the more offensive sides in La Liga … Espanyol also played an entertaining game with a lot of chances last round. With both teams having nothing to fight for, it should be an open and overish game … the odds on the under over market are pretty decent here, so my tip will be over 2,5 goals to be scored with a reasonably high stake. Correct score prediction: Espanyol – Rayo Vallecano 2-1.
Pick: over 2,5 goals
Odds: 1.75 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 6
Event date: 3 May
