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England takes on Estonia in Tallinn as a 1.25 odds favorite in the third round of the Euro 2016 qualifying group E.
Estonia has 1 win and 1 draw so far, beating Slovenia 1-0 at home before losing 1-0 in Lithuania. This is a very defensive minded team, the hosts have scored in just two of the last seven games (!!!) and struggle big time on the offensive end. There`s no doubt that Estonia will try to play organized and disciplined at the back today (4-5-1 formation = defending on two lines), hoping to keep England at bay and maybe create 2 or 3 chances on counters.
England was actually pretty decent after the world Cup, winning 2-0 in Switzerland and 5-0 against San Marino a few days ago. Roy Hodgson has made it clear that defense is the backbone of this team and he is more than satisfy to “bore his way into Euro 2016” with 1-0 and 2-0 wins. The visitors have not conceded a goal in the last 4 matches and the statistics are in conformity with the way England approaches games – focusing to keep a clean sheet first.
Team news & lineups:
Estonia will miss Kallaste (suspended), while England has no new injuries or suspensions.
Estonia: Pareiko – Teniste, Klavan, Barengrub, Jaager – Antonov, Vunk, Mets, Lindpere, Zenjov – Anier
England: Hart – Chambers, Cahill, Jagielka, Baines – Wilshere, Henderson – Sterling, Rooney, Delph – Welbeck
I really can`t see Estonia scoring today and I think they will be lucky to even get 1 serious attempt at goal. They are atrocious in the attacking area and meet a much better team which is focused on defense as well and has an excellent back line. My tip is England to win to nil at an excellent price of 1.91 at Bet365. I`m not sure if these odds will stand much longer, I reckon 1.91 is just too high for a bet that has a very serious probability to win as far as both statistics, styles of play and common sense are concerned. Honestly I`m more concerned by a 0-0 draw than by Estonia to score, but i reckon England is too good to not get the three points here and we`ll win the bet in the end. We`ll see how it goes, high stakes for me. Prediction: Estonia – England 0-2.
Pick: England to win to nil
Odds: 1.91 @ Bet365
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 8.19
Event date: 12 October
