Bouchard – Sharapova

Eugenie Bouchard and Maria Sharapova will square off in the most anticipated women’s quarterfinal at the Australian Open.

Bouchard played good tennis so far here in Melbourne, but she did have a lot of ups and downs – almost losing a set to Garcia, losing a set to Begu and generally having a couple of moments of “blackout” in every match. Looking at the statistics she appears to have played amazing, but we have to take into account that she did not meet any top class opposition so far. Nevertheless, Eugenie is clearly in a good position right now and surely she can`t be ruled out against anybody, especially if she manages to cut down her errors just a bit.

Sharapova was inches away from being knocked out by Panova in the second round but she somehow pulled off a win from match point down and went on to destroy Dyias and Peng in the next two matches, losing a combined total of 5 points against some worthy opponents (surely better than what Bouchard met). Maria seems to have alreadly reached her top level and as far as I`m concerned, the way she`s playing might just make here the number 1 favorite to win it all.

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Sharapova leads the Head 2 Head 3-0 (1-0 on hard), but the only relevant meeting since Bouchard’s emergence was last year at Rolland Garros, with Maria winning 4-6 7-5 6-2. The two play a similar brand of tennis so matchup and Head 2 Head do not tell much – the difference makers will always be quality, form and experience – right now Maria has all of them in her favour.

While Sharapova clearly looks like the big favorite here, it`s always dangerous with these big hitters, as an off day can ruin everything – so odds of under 1.35 for Maria are simply too low. Bouchard has been playing very well and both players can keep serve at a reasonable level for womens’ tennis, so I see this one going over the points total. I expect Bouchard to win a set, but the bet could be a winner even in two as a tiebreak is a real possibility.

The under / over line is pretty low at 20,5 games, but for a little extra safety my tip will be over 20 games. On the 1×2 market I expect Sharapova to win 2-1, but I`m not betting on that. Prediction: Eugenie Bouchard – Maria Sharapova 4-6 7-6 2-6.

Pick: over 20 games
Odds: 1.74 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 5.92
Event date: 27 January