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Eugenie Bouchard (31 WTA, 19 years old) showed she is more than just a pretty face and has emerged as a superstar and a fan favorite here in Melbourne. However, the experienced Na Li (4 WTA, last year finalist) will be her toughest challenge yet. Let`s get going with the preview, shall we?
After losing in the first round in Sydney to Mattek-Sands, Bouchard found the best form of her life at the Australian Open, defeating Tang, Razzano, Davis, Dellacqua and Ana Ivanovic on her road to the semifinals, losing only 2 sets against Dellacqua and Ivanovic. She has a solid serve, and her offensive game combined with her good looks quickly made her a fan sensation, so surely she`ll have the crowd on her side today. However, looking closer at Bouchard`s matches you can`t be THAT impressed. She had a very easy draw until the quarters (and still had small problems vs. Dellacqua), where she took advantage of some fitness problems that Ivanovic had to book her place in the semifinals. Eugenie is playing some top tennis, but surely she is still not ripe enough for this level, as she showed a lot of weaknesses over the course of the tournament – unforced errors being by far the biggest problem for her (she had no less than 37 vs. Ana Ivanovic).
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Na Li cruised to the semifinals, winning 7 of the 11 sets she played with 6-2 or 6-0 (vs. Konjuh, Bencic, Safarova, Makarova and Pennetta). She did have serious problems in the 3rd round against Safarova (1-6 7-6 6-3) but she did well to recover in the next stages, losing only 6 games in her next 2 matches. Na Li is playing just great right now, she`s at the peak of her form with her usual fast paced shots and amazing angles producing big problems to her opponents. She has raised her level from round to round and against Pennetta she was just blasting winners all over the place in an impressive manner.
The only meeting between the two was won by Na Li last season in Montreal, on hard courts, 6-4 6-4. The odds on last years’ finalist are dropping right now, and for good reason, as she is the better player here in all aspects of the game, both technical and mental, and she should be able to take this.
Na Li is clearly playing the better tennis right now and, very important, she is much more experienced in handling these kind of matches. A two time Grand Slam finalist and one time winner, an in-form Li will meet an inexperienced player who was a little bit lucky to get this far. Bouchard was good but really not that impressive and it`s hard to envision here giving Li a big fight, as she does not have the required consistency (or weapons) to do so. Ana Ivanovic was in control of the quarterfinal clash against Eugenie (and would have probably won it) until her right thigh started giving her problems. My prediction for this one is Na Li to win and most likely cover a solid handicap in the process. Look for her to move Bouchard all over the court and produce a high number of forced errors from the canadian. The 4,5 line is not so big for womens tennis and I think Li would have little trouble winning 6-4 6-3 or even easier. My pick is Na Li -4,5 game handiap.
Pick: Na Li (-4,5)
Odds: 1.77 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 6.16
Event date: 23 January
Editor Facts
- Rostick is 3 for 5 in Australian Open tips
- This is Rostick’s first tip on the Australian Open Women draw
