Bouchard – Kvitova

Canadian Eugenie Bouchard will play her first ever Grand Slam final at Wimbledon against the resurgent former champion Petra Kvitova.

Bouchard has played some top-class tennis in this tournament, winning all her matches in straight sets despite meeting really solid opposition and in-form players (Petkovic, Cornet, Kerber, Halep). Her road to the finals was extremely tough, but Eugenie handled it well and it`s not such a big surprise that she managed to do it: Bouchard was really consistent this year in the big tournaments, she is the only player on the WTA tour to reach the semifinals in all 3 Grand Slam and really elevated her level of tennis. The Canadian is very good on grass, her offensive brand of tennis is well suited for this surface and she improved her movement a lot, which also helps on the green: we could see her defending very well in the match with Sharapova in Roland Garros, or with Halep here at Wimbledon.

Bouchard was very impressive in routing one of the best and most consistent players of the moment, Simona Halep, 7-6 6-2 in the semifinals. She moved brilliantly on the court and got a win that you just can’t get if you are not at your best. Indeed, Halep rolled her ankle a bit in the first set, but the injury did not impact her level of play, at least not until the end of the match.

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Listen, Kvitova is a fine player, she showed very good attacking tennis in this tournament (lost just one set), she`s a former champion with a lot of experience and she`s a grass court expert as well. Still, you can’t shake the fact that she had an unbelievably easy draw: Petra did not play a single top 20 player in her road to the finals, which is amazing. She was close to losing against Venus Williams in the 2nd round and had big problems against Safarova in the first set of the semifinal, until her compatriot folded in the second part of the match. It`s a long time since Kvitova played top 5 level tennis and considering the opposition she faced, we can not be sure that she is at such a level at the moment. She played well but also was not tested, and still showed some weaknesses.

The Czech player leads the H2H 1-0, an easy win last year in Toronto, but Bouchard is a totally different animal this season. Both players like grass and have similar styles of play, it will be an interesting match between two offensive big hitters.

The bookmakers’ odds suggest Kvitova is the favorite here, but I have to disagree. Indeed the Czech player holds the crucial advantage of experience, but otherwise Bouchard played better tennis this two weeks (and all season for that matter), she faced much tougher tests and is the more consistent player as well. We should see a lot of power shots and winners here, and I think the difference will be made by Bouchard’s more consistent baseline play, by her better form and by her much improved movement on defense. My belief is that Kvitova will unforce-error her way to a loss and my tip is Bouchard to win. The over might also be a good bet, but the simple Bouchard win seems a better choice for me and has better odds as well. I was torn between 8 and 9 units, but because of the price I will take a calculated risk and go with the bigger stake. Prediction: Eugenie Bouchard – Petra Kvitova 7-5 6-7 6-2.

Pick: Eugenie Bouchard
Odds: 2.25 @ Unibet
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 11.25
Event date: 5 July