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Massive clash at Goodison Park with the 4th place in the table up for grabs. Arsenal currently holds a 4 point advantage over Everton, but also has an extra game played, so a win for the hosts would incredibly make them favorites to play Champions League football next year.
Everton has played brilliant football this season under Roberto Martinez and seems to have peaked exactly at the right time. Everton is on a 4 match winning streak, scoring 11 goals in the process and has actually won the last 5 league games. On the other hand, the Toffees suffered a heavy defeat the last time they met Arsenal, falling 4-1 at the Emirates in the FA Cup less than 1 month ago. Another thing of note is that the hosts have faced really poor opposition in the last 5 league games (West Ham, Cardiff, Fulham, Swansea, Newcastle), so maybe it`s not the time to jump on the Everton bandwagon just yet.
No more than a couple of weeks ago Arsenal was still talking about winning the title, but a 3 match winless streak (including a 6-0 drubbing to Chelsea) have seen the Gunners not only lose all title hopes, but being in real danger of finishing outside the Top 4 for the first time in ages. However, Arsenal showed some improvement in the last round when they got a 1-1 home draw against City, a match they could have even won with a little bit of luck, so they will look to at least repeat that performance today.
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Team news & lineups
Everton is struggling with injuries right now, missing captain Jagielka, Gibson, Kone, Pienaar, Oviedo and Traore, while Barkley is doubtful. Arsenal is also missing a lot of players but unlike Everton, Arsenal is used to this situation and their injury list is actually smaller this time around. Ozil, Walcott, Wilshere and Diaby are still out, along with Myiachy and Koscielny, while Gibbs is doubtful. The Gunners will have Aron Ramsey back in the squad for this game.
Everton: Howard – Coleman, Stones, Distin, Baines – McCarthy, Barry – Osman, Barkley, Deulofeu – Lukaku.
Arsenal: Szczesny – Sagna, Mertesacker, Vermaelen, Monreal – Ramsey, Arteta – Rosicky, Cazorla, Podolski – Giroud.
Arsenal has been in this kind of situation time and time again in March-April, losing title hopes due to being unable to challenge the big guns, but eventually holding off teams like Everton to finish 3rd or 4th in the standings. I reckon Wenger will be able to pull it off again. Everton is playing well but their form is a little bit deceptive, as they haven`t met any team of Arsenal`s caliber lately. The visitors on the other hand showed improvements in the City game and proved they can take care of Everton even in deep crisis, like they did in the 4-1 drubbing one month ago. Earlier this season Everton got a point at Emirates but overall the Toffees have not beaten the Gunners since 2007, making it 14 matches without a win against Arsenal. Also considering the hosts are struggling with injuries while Arsenal is getting some players back, I think it`s safe to assume the visitors have every chance of getting at least a draw and keeping the advantage in the race for the 4th place.
My tip is Arsenal +0,5 handicap (x2) and I will go with maximum stakes, as I am very confident in this bet and I feel the odds are way too high. Prediction: Everton – Arsenal 1-1 or 1-2.
Pick: Arsenal (+0,5)
Odds: 1.67 @ Sbobet
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 6.70
Event date: 6 April
