Everton – Burnley

Everton will look to continue their excellent home form when they take on a Burnley side which is yet to win away from home this season in the Premier League.

Everton is currently 7th in the standings and will almost surely play Europa League football next season, as they are currently 10 points above 8th placed West Brom. Despite pretty much knowing how this season will end for them, the hosts are playing arguably their best football of the season right now, putting in an excellent series of results, with very solid performances as well. The Toffees are on the back of a 4-2 win over Leicester, their 6th consecutive win at Goodison Park.

Burnley is sitting on the 12th place and with Premier League safety virtually assured, the visitors apparently took their foot off the gas recently. Burnley has not won a single game since January and they continue to be horrific on the road, where they have not won this season (4 draws and 12 losses). Burnley did claim 2 draws in their last 2 away games, but those were ugly 0-0 results against Middlesbrough and Sunderland, the two worst teams in the league.

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Team news & lineups:

Bolasie, Fuenes Mori, Coleman, Lennon and Besic are out for Everton, with McCarthy a doubt. Burnley won`t be able to count on Marney, while Gudmundsson, Defour and Long are questionable.

Everton: Robles – Holgate, Jagielka, Williams, Baines – Gueye, Schneiderlin, Davies – Barkley – Mirallas, Lukaku

Burnley: Heaton – Lowton, Keane, Mee, Ward – Boyd, Barton, Hendrick, Brady – Gray, Barnes

Everton has been truly special at Goodison Park this season, with only two teams in the entire Premier League winning more points at home than them (Chelsea and Tottenham). The Tofees won their last 6 games at this venue, all of them in convincing fashion, by 2 or more goals. Meeting the worst away team in the Premier League must surely give Everton confidence for a 7th straight win at home.

Burnley is playing rather poor football lately, they have problems scoring and that is not good news coming to Goodison, where Everton is regularly scoring 3 or 4 goals each game. Normally you wouldn`t expect Burnley to score here, but even if they do, it`s hard to see them getting more than one – and in normal circumstances that should not be enough to challenge for points.

My tip is Everton to win with a -1 asian handicap. They covered this spread in each of their last 6 home games so you would expect them to win by 2 or more again, but the bet offers a nice safety net in case the Toffees only win by 1. And that is important to have, because despite Burnley’s disastrous road record, all their last 7 road losses came by a single goal – and there were some very tough matches there, at Arsenal, Liverpool, Tottenham or Manchester City.

Everton has proven to be extremely trustworthy at home and I view this as a simple but relatively safe bet to take this Saturday, especially if we keep the stakes under control. Prediction: Everton – Burnley 2-0.

Pick: Everton (-1 Asian Handicap)
Odds: 1.76 @ 1xBet
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 5.32
Event date: 15 April