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The season in La Liga could hardly have ended any better than this, with Barcelona and Atletico Madrid playing a final for the title in the last round. The hosts will win it all if they get the three points today, while Atletico needs at least a draw in order to lift the trophy. The game looks very balanced on paper and one might say that Barcelona’s odds are too low, but the analysis will be the judge of that.
Barcelona faced a lot of criticism this season, many pundits stating that it`s the end of an era for the Catalan side. Even so, Barca did play excellent football at times and now has the chance to achieve something that seemed impossible one month ago, winning the title. Barca has benefited big time from Atletico and Real’s poor results lately, but the hosts lost form themselves in the last two matches, drawing with Getafe and Elche. Surely Barca needs to come up with its “A game” here if they are to win the title.
Atletico Madrid is set to play two huge matches in a week’s time, as they also have the Champions League final next Saturday after the Barcelona match. Simeone`s side had a truly great season but seemed to fold under the pressure of winning the title in the last matches. Atletico has a single point in the last two rounds, losing 2-0 against Levante and barely getting a 1-1 draw at home against Malaga. The results are one thing, but the level of play was really bad from the Madrid side and they need to step up today, something they will most likely do.
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Team news & lineups
Valdes, Puyol and Cuenca are the only missing players for Barca, but the hosts have a number of questionable footballers, most notable Neymar, Pique and Bartra. Atletico Madrid has been healthy all season and Simeone will be delighted to have a full squad to choose from. Diego Costa is slightly doubtful but most likely he will start.
FC Barcelona: Pinto – Dani Alves, Mascherano, Bartra, Alba – Sergio, Fabregas, Iniesta – Alexis, Messi, Pedro
Atletico Madrid: Courtois – Juanfran, Alderweireld, Miranda, Filipe Luis – Tiago, Koke, Gabi, Arda Turan – Villa, Costa
Surely Barca’s experience is a big asset for the hosts, aside with the home court advantage, but I believe Atletico will secure the title today. The visitors have been the more stable team in the last year and they are yet to lose against Barcelona in 5 meetings this season (1 win, 4 draws). Simeone and his side know to play the “draw game” all too well and they should be able to frustrate Barca and punish them on counters. The fact that Neymar and Pique will probably fail to start the game is also a big disadvantage for the home team. My tip is Atletico +0,5 handicap, I trust my analysis and I can see the visitors completing the job and winning the title in this last match. The odds are simply brilliant, Barca is way overrated here and in these circumstances the x2 bet deserves high stakes. Atletico has been dominant against Barca in their recent Champions League tie and I see no reason for a different outcome today. Prediction: FC Barcelona – Atletico Madrid 1-2.
Pick: Atletico Madrid (+0,5 handicap)
Odds: 2.11 @ Sbobet
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 9.99
Event date: 17 May
