FC Basel – FC Porto

FC Basel hosts FC Porto in the first leg of this Champions League Round 16 tie.

Basel qualified from a group with Real Madrid, Liverpool and Ludogorets … their heroics against Liverpool brought them the 2nd place and the chance to play for the quarterfinals vs. Porto. This being said, Basel is looking really good now … lost a single game since October (0-1 vs. Real Madrid) and started 2015 with a 4-2 win at Grasshopper on February 8, after some great goalscoring performances in friendlies. Basel followed that with a 1-1 draw vs. Sion over the weekend but obviously their focus was on this game with Porto.

Ivanov and Schar will be absent from Basel’s lineup today, but the Swiss side was used to play with much bigger squad problems … so team news are not bad at all and Basel has adequate depth to cope.

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Porto could hardly play any better on the defensive end at the moment … even though they did not meat top teams recently in Portugal, 4 consecutive wins are impressive, and the last 3 of them came with a clean sheet. Julen Lopetegui is happy to have the possibility to send his preferred lineup on the pitch, because Porto does not have any injuries and suspensions for this game.

Basel needs to get something out of this game if they are to have a chance of progressing, so I do not expect them to take any risks. Hosts looked in good goalscoring form recently but Champions League is a different thing and the approach will surely be more cautious, defensive. Also looking at Porto’s defensive record, it will not be easy for Basel to score today. I expect a close game with not too many open spaces to exploit and it will finish with under 2,5 goals in my opinion. It is worth mentioning that the odds for the under 2,5 bet are dropping fast on the under/over market. Prediction: FC Basel – FC Porto 1-1.

Pick: under 2,5 goals
Odds: 1.63 @ Betsson
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 5.04
Event date: 18 February