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FC Basel are expected to have their hands full against the high flying Salzburg, a team which just knocked out Ajax with 6-1 aggregate and has played amazing football this season. However, Basel is an experienced side with a lot of quality and has its own advantages coming into this one.
Basel was knocked out of the Champions League despite beating Chelsea twice in the group stages. In the previous round of the Europa League, the swiss side got past Maccabi Tel Aviv after 0-0 away and 3-0 at home. Basel is currently in a bit of a slump with 3 consecutive draws in the Super League but they are still 5 points clear of the second place and they look impossible to beat – losing 3 matches all season, once to Zurich in August 2013 and twice to Schalke in the Champions league. Basel is currently riding a 10 match undefeated run.
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Salzburg, currently riding a 14 match winning streak, has surely raised a lot of eyebrows this season. The austrian side is playing brilliant football and it`s not a stretch to consider them one of the best sides in Europe on the offensive end right now. Salzburg scored 88 goals in 26 Bundesliga games and has no less than 25 points in front of the second place, being already champions. They are also the only team to have won all 8 Europa League games (group stage: Standard Liege, Esbjerg, Elfsborg) and showed some incredible football against Ajax in two winning efforts: 3-0 away, 3-1 home. Salzburg`s strength comes from the attacking lineup of Alan (21 games, 21 goals) and former Barcelona B vastly underrated super striker Jonathan Soriano (18 games, 23 goals).
Team news: Both teams have some problems for this one. Basel will miss Ivanov and Adili but the biggest issue is the fitness of Marco Streller, who is doubtful. Salzburg will also suffer a big blow if star striker Alan (highly doubtful) will not be able to play. Regular defender Andreas Ulmer is unavailable for the visitors.
Salzburg has been unbelievable this season and the odds on the austrians are dropping at an incredibly fast rate, but I think they could be in for an upset here. Salzburg is very good but the reality is they did not face tough opposition this season aside from Ajax, a team that is vastly overrated anyway. Basel is not far from the visitors in terms of quality, they have much more experience in this type of games (last year Europa League semifinalists), they are extremely hard to beat and of course they have home court advantage. The probable absence of Alan will also hurt Salzburg a lot. I love this Salzburg team but the odds are way, way off right now and I feel the price movement has gone too far after an initial normal drop on the in-form visitors’ odds. Basel is the same team that beat Chelsea twice and challenged Schalke in UCL, so they have every chance to get a result at home in this one. My tip is Basel +05 asian handicap (1x double chance). Prediction: FC Basel – Red Bull Salzburg 1-1.
Pick: Basel (+0,5)
Odds: 1.76 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 6.08
Event date: 13 March
