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Valencia is the odds on favorite to overcome FC Basel in Switzerland, but at a closer analysis the hosts might actually be good value to get a result in the first leg of this Europa League quarterfinal. However, the game will be played behind closed doors, so no fans in the stands for Basel, which will obviously be an advantage for the visitors.
Basel has always been underrated in Europe but this is such an experienced, resilient and tactically sound side and always managed to upset the odds. Basel did it a couple of times this season as well, beating Chelsea twice in the Champions League group stage before knocking out a high flying Salzburg side in the last round of the Europa League. Basel is on a 16 match unbeaten run right now, the last losing effort being in early December against Schalke in the Champions League. The hosts are also in very good form defensively, allowing just one goal in the last 6 games, and that was in a 2-1 winning performance against the free scoring Salzburg. Basel is on the back of a 2-0 win at Luzern over the weekend, which helped them secure a slim 3 point advantage over Grasshoppers in the swiss title race.
Valencia was never in doubt in the last round of the Europa League, winning comfortably against the surprise package of Ludogorets with a 4-0 aggregate score. However, the visitors are not in the best shape right now, putting on 2 sub-par performances in the last two games: 2-2 at Almeria and especially the 1-3 home loss to Getafe a couple of days ago – it was Getafe`s first win in 17 games! Financial trouble forced Valencia to sell its best players again and this time around the replacements are proving unable to do the job. Valencia has the weakest team in a long time and as a consequence the team is struggling on the 8th place in La Liga, with zero chances to play European football next year.
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Team news & lineups
Just like in the Salzburg tipe, Basel is again facing a small injury crisis. Streller, Ivanov, Adili, Suchy and Sio are all out, while a couple of other players will have to undergo late fitness tests. Valencia will also have to do without a number of players: Alves, Ruiz and Parejo, while Costa, Senderos and Fuego are questionable.
FC Basel: Sommer – P. Degen, Schar, Sauro, Aliji – Elneny, Xhaka – D.Degen, Stocker, Diaz – Die
Valencia: Guaita – J. Pereira, Senderos, Mathieu, J. Bernat – Keita, Parejo – Fede, Vargas, Feghouli – P. Alcacer
Indeed, the fact that Basel will play behind closed doors, along with all the injuries, will be a problem for the hosts and in these circumstances it`s not surprising that the odds for Valencia to win are dropping fast. However, the swiss side has been in these kind of situations before and was always able to overcome difficulties, most recently against a great Salzburg side when they had to play with an even more weakened first 11. Basel`s strength comes mainly from Yakin`s tactical approach and discipline, along with their defensive setup. I don`t think Valencia (who has it`s own injury problems) is strong enough to come out with a win on the road against this underrated Basel team. The hosts will still benefit big time from the home court even with no fans in the stands (see home court advantage analysis). My tip is Basel to win or draw and if I had to guess, my money would be on the draw. I feel this bet has a lot of value and potential so I will invest high stakes. Prediction: FC Basel – Valencia 1-1.
Pick: Basel (+0,5)
Odds: 1.77 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 6.93
Event date: 3 April
