FC Porto – Bayern

FC Porto hosts Bayern Munich at Estadio Dragao in the first leg of this Champions League quarterfinal.

Porto had no problems getting past Basel in the previous round, winning 4-0 at home after 1-1 in Switzerland. But Porto had plenty of important matches since than … they are involved in two fronts, Champions League and Portugese league, where they are 3 points behind Benfica. Porto won the last two matches in style vs. Rio Ave and Estoril, but two weeks ago lost to Maritimo 1-2 in the Portugese Cup. Porto has a number of key players missing or questionable: Ivan Marcano is suspendes, Jakcson Martinez and Cristian Tello are questionable.

FC Porto projected lineup:
Fabiano – Danilo, Maicon, Martins Indi, Sandro – Casemiro, Brahimi, Evandro, Herrera – Aboubakar, Martinez

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Bayern Munich gets some players back from injury, like Thiago Alcantara, but other key players will miss from the lineup: Robben, Ribery, Martinez, Alaba, Schweinsteiger, probably Benatia as well. All key players and Bayern had some problems without them in the last big match they played … one week ago, 0-0 at Leverkusen in the Cup (Bayern won at penalties). In the weekend, the Bavarians easily beat Frankfurt by a 3-0 result, resting some players like Neuer.

Bayern Munich projected lineup:
Neuer – Rafinha, Boateng, Dante, Bernat – Lahm, Thiago Alcantara, Xabi Alonso – Muller, Gotze, Lewandowski

Bayern is in great form and in the previous Champions League round, destroyed Shakhtar 7-0 with a aggregate result. Even if the first leg away was only 0-0, Bayern was very unlucky not to win it … including being disadvantaged by the referee. Porto is a little stronger than the Ukrainean team, mainly because of superior experience … but I do not think they can resist this incredible force of Bayern and get a result, not even at home. Porto is in the middle of a very tough and busy schedule and they do not know how to sit back, park the bus … Bayern will have more spaces than usual and will punish Porto.

It will be a real test to the depth of the Bavarian visitors (no Robben, Ribery, Schweinsteiger, Alaba), but my tip will be Bayern Munich to win and I am confident enough to stake 9 units on this bet. Correct score prediction: FC Porto – Bayern Munich 1-2.

Pick: Bayern Munich
Odds: 1.85 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 7.65
Event date: 15 April