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FC Porto hosts Sporting Braga at Dragao Stadium in the 7th round of the Portugese Primeira Liga as a 1.45 odds favorite, which seems high at a first glance but the analysis will show if that is the case or not.
Porto looks a little weakened after losing some players in the summer … 3 wins and 3 draws is not a good statistic in a mediocre league like Portugal. Porto started with 3 wins but only got draws in the last 3 matches but fact is they did not play too bad – they almost beat Sporting, they killed BATE Borisov 6-0 in the Champions League and got a 2-2 draw at Shakhtar a couple of days ago after being led 2-0 in the 89th minute! For sure that will be a huge boost for Porto to get back to winning ways in the league.
Braga played very well until now, statistically speaking they only received 3 goals and are on 6th place with 11 points in 6 matches. Braga defeated Rio Ave 3-0 last match and with their excellent defense will feel this is their best chance in a long time to get a result at Porto. Braga will try to play a good defensive game and counterattack. But despite this, Braga is known as a team that plays better at home and this season makes no exception … they did not win a single game on the road (0-2-1, only 1 goal scored) which will be a handicap coming to Dragao.
I feel Porto is a little underrated here, the fact that they have 3 draws in succession in the league does not do them justice … they had Champions League football, they had the derby with Sporting … it was a tough period. Basic statistics are very misleading ahead of this game … now Porto is free of UCL football next week so they can focus better, also at home they have a big advantage over Braga. Porto is still a very good team and is playing good football so they should be all over Braga in this game and get a good win. Braga is a decent side in good form but not on par with the top sides … they will probably make it hard for Porto on the defensive end but most likely will concede 1 or 2 goals without scoring … so that will be my tip, Porto to win to nil (Porto conceded just 2 goals so far in Portugal, Braga scored only once away). Handicap is a little risky because Braga defends very well and a 1-0 Porto win is not out of the question. Correct score prediction: FC Porto – Braga 2-0.
Pick: Porto to win to nil
Odds: 2.10 @ Bet365
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 8.8
Event date: 5 October
