Sevilla – Molde

Two time reigning Europa League champions FC Sevilla will host Molde in arguably the most unbalanced tie of this Last 32 round.

Sevilla had to settle for a 3rd place finish in a Champions League group with Juventus, Gladbach and Manchester City, but the Spanish outfit has been in brilliant form lately, particularly at home. Sevilla won the last 13 home matches in all competitions. 9 of those wins were by a form of handicap and 10 of them came with a clean sheet. Sevilla has 9 wins and 3 draws in the last 12 matches, coming off a 2-0 win over Las Palmas, so with these statistics it seems that only a crazy person would bet against them today.

Molde had a remarkable Europa League campaign, winning a nightmare group with Ajax, Fenerbahce and Celtic. They also finished the Norwegian League on a high, winning the last 5 games. Solskjær’s return had a big impact on the club, but Modle will have to deal with not playing competitive football since December.

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Team news: Both sides will field their best available lineups and there are no fresh injuries or suspensions. There are reports about a couple of fringe players struggling for fitness for both sides, but it will not make a difference.

Molde is hands down one of the best counterattacking teams in Europe right now, however strange that might sound. They really are and pose a threat to pretty much anybody under Solskjaer. The Norwegian side proved it against top opposition in the groups stages.

I do not expect Molde to punish Sevilla on the break, but I expect Sevilla to be aware of Molde’s capabilities and play a safe game, not pushing for a large score – especially as Sevilla has more important things to worry about, like fighting for a Top 4 spot in La Liga. They will obviously treat the match seriously, but will be wary of the threat Molde poses and have no reason to force a big win. The hosts will know that they can’t afford to leave open spaces and they will choose to dominate possession in a rather slow game. I expect a 1-0 or 2-0 win for Sevilla.

The odds on the hosts are as low as they could ever be, Sevilla really has all the circumstances here – particularly their home for, statistics, but also their tradition in the Europa League, the quality difference, Molde’s inactivity and Sevilla’s overall form. Molde is definitely underestimated and there`s value in their odds, so my tip will be Molde to cover the 2,5 goal handicap. Prediction: FC Sevilla – Molde 2-0.

Pick: Molde +2,5
Odds: 1.66 @ 1xBet
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 4.62
Event date: 18 February