Verdasco – Garcia-Lopez

Fernando Verdasco will take on defending champion Guillermo Garcia-Lopez at the Nastase Tiriac Trophy, an ATP 250 tournament played on red clay in Bucharest.

I expected Verdasco to suffer one of his famous meltdowns in the quarterfinals against Haase, but I was wrong. Nando backed up his early tournament form and recorded a solid 7-6 6-3 victory against a good player. Verdasco previously defeated Setkic in 3 sets, which can be attributed to him getting used to the surface and followed that up with a 6-3 6-1 win over Albot, before his win with Haase. This is the first semifinal in 2016 for Verdasco, who didn`t even reach a quarterfinal prior to Bucharest – but he did reach the 2nd or 3rd round in almost all tournaments this year.

Garcia-Lopez had a mediocre year so far, but the Spaniard started playing better once the clay court season started. He reached the Marrakech quarterfinals and followed that up with a solid showing in Monte Carlo, defeating Bellucci and playing a good match against Federer. Garcia-Lopez increased his level even more this week, routing a dangerous Kyle Edmund in two easy sets and beating Guido Pella in a thriller on Friday. It was a great match between two fine players, with Garcia-Lopez saving 2 match points before winning 7-6 3-6 7-6.

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Verdasco leads the Head 2 Head 7-2 and he clearly holds a matchup advantage over Garcia-Lopez, which just might be the deciding factor in an evenly matched clash. On the other hand, all matches were close and Garcia-Lopez won the last one, a 2-1 victory last year in Valencia, on indoor hard.

Look for a lot of close rallies here, as both guys were excellent from the baseline this week. Also, I don`t expect too many breaks of serve considering how well these guys served so far. Verdasco and Garcia Lopez got broken just 5 times combined in 5 matches combined (Garcia-Lopez had a bye in the 1st round) – which is pretty amazing considering the tournament is played on clay.

Only one of the nine Head 2 Head meetings saw under 22 games and I don`t think this will be the second. Verdasco seems on a mission this week, but he`s always prone to losing focus in games and / or sets. Meanwhile, Garcia-Lopez is playing some great tennis himself, serving well and showing a really high level in his two matches here. Being the defending champion, he will surely fight with all powers until the end. The quality of serve these two showcased so far is set to contribute to a high number of games, I actually expect a tiebreak here.

This looks like a very evenly matched clash with Verdasco as the slight favorite. The under over game line is rather low at 22 games and I am glad to bet on the over. I can see three sets here, but the line can also be covered in two tight sets. All in all, my tip here is over 22 games. Prediction: Fernando Verdasco – Guillermo Garcia-Lopez 7-6 3-6 6-4.

Pick: over 22 games
Odds: 1.93 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 7.44
Event date: 23 April