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Clearly David Ferrer is not at his best right now, having the worst patch of form in a long time. The spaniard played six hard court tournaments after Wimbledon and he managed to win more than 2 matches only twice (quarters at US Open and Beijing). Here at Stockholm Ferrer did not even have time to enter a playing rhythm. He had a bye in the first round and a walkover yesterday, so his only match was a largely unimpressive three set win against Tomic Sock in the second round. A guy which is not in his best form would need matches under his belt to find his playing rhythm.
Gulbis is one of the biggest talents on tour right now. Vastly underachieving in the last years, Ernests finally started to put on the work in training, quitting drinking and other harmful habits. The results are obvious, the latvian getting back in the top 30, beating some top 10 players along the way and winning 2 tournaments, including the last one he played, in september at St. Petersburg. Ernests won against Chardy, Sijsling and Janowicz here, losing 2 sets on the way but looking solid. This is a guy that can beat anyone on his day and he proved it this season: wins over Murray, Haas, Tsonga or Tipsarevic, also twice forcing Nadal into a decider on clay! His attacking play is fantastic when he`s in top form, which is the case now.
H2H is 1-0 for Ferrer, 6-2 6-1 on hard, but the meeting was in 2007, so really not relevant. Gulbis has an advantage with the playing surface here. While Ferrer evolved into a solid all-rounder, Gulbis is most comfortable in indoor hard conditions, so you have to give him an edge from this point of view.
I see Ferrer slightly unprepared for this meeting. He is playing against a guy in top form, with an excellent playing rhythm, while David is in bad form and played only one match so far. You could argue that he is fresher, but it`s not the case, a guy like Gulbis won`t tire after playing 3 matches in a week. You could also argue that Gulbis’ attacking style creates a bad match-up for him against a rested baseline grinder like Ferrer, but David actually makes a huge number of unforced errors when he`s not in his best form. My pick is Gulbis to show why he`s priced so low against Ferrer and reach his second consecutive final. He should force the mistake from an unstable Ferrer. There`s been too much time since David was playing his best tennis, so there are no real premises for him to suddenly regain his form, especially without match rhythm and against an opponent like Gulbis. Ernests proved time and time again that he has no problems playing and defeating even the very top players in the ATP rankings. Odds are dropping. David Ferrer – Ernests Gulbis 4-6 6-2 3-6.
Pick: Gulbis
Odds: 1.88 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 6
Possible profit: 5.28
Event date: 19 October
Editor Facts
- Rostick is a tennis specialist but lost his last 4 tennis tips
