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Round 21 in Serie A will see Champions League hopefuls Fiorentina take on mid-table side Genoa at Artemio Franchi.
Fiorentina (4th place) is in great form right now, winning 4 and drawing 1 of their last 5 games in Seria A, adding three cup wins in this timeframe (2 Coppa Italia, 1 Uefa Cup). One of the best attacking teams in the league, Fiorentina adapted to being a very solid defensive side after losing Mario Gomez and Giuseppe Rossi due to injuries. The Firenze side kept an impressive number of 5 clean sheets in the last 5 league games! On the offensive end, ‘La Viola’ signed Matri on loan from Milan and he immediately proved his worth, scoring a brace in his debut against Catania (3-0). Fiorentina has been pretty solid at home this season (6-2-1) and is on the back of a 2-1 home win against Spezia in the Cup.
Genoa (10th place) sits comfortably in the middle of the table and this will probably be their story until the end of the season. Genoa won 2 of the last 3 games played (all Serie A), so decent form for them, but between the two wins they suffered a heavy 4-0 defeat to the hands of Roma at Olimpico. Playing on the road has certainly not been Genoa`s strength this season, with the visitors posting a 2-2-6 statline when away from home. However, Genoa`s solid defence allowed them to be competitive in pretty much every game they played (home or away). With a 20-24 goal difference, Genoa lost only 2 times by more than 2 goals this season (against Roma and Fiorentina) and 5 times by more than 1 goal. When Genoa and Fiorentina met earlier this season, “La Viola’ handed today`s visitors their biggest home defeat: 2-5.
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Team news & lineups
Fiorentina will miss a number of players for this game. Besidez Gomez and Rossi, Hegazy, Tomovic and Rodriguez are also out, while Ilicic is a major doubt. Genoa will have to do without Gamberini and Kucka.
Fiorentina: Neto – Roncaglia, Compper, Savic, Pasqual – Anderson, Pizarro, Valero – Cuadrado, Matri, Vargas
Genoa: Perin – Antonini, Portanova, Marchese – Vrsaljko, Matuzalem, Cofie, Antonelli – Fetfatzidis, Bertolacci – Gilardino
I feel Fiorentina is just a little bit overvalued here at 1.35 odds, as there`s not a titanic class difference between the two teams, and I wouldn`t be surprised if the hosts will make a wrong step in this one or will win by only one goal – which I actually feel is the most probable outcome. I doubt Fiorentina will cover the 1 goal handicap. Genoa will surely be more focused after last time on the road they lost 4-0 and after they lost 2-5 to Fiorentina earlier this season, while Fiorentina without Gomez and Rossi is a little bit more focused on defense, with a decreased ability of covering handicaps. It`s also not impossible for Genoa to get a goal here, as ex-Firenze man Gilardino can always give you a scoring play from nowhere, and Fiorentina`s run of 5 clean sheets in a row will end sooner or later. My pick is Genoa +1,5 handicap at more than decent odds. Prediction: Fiorentina – Genoa 1-0 or 2-1.
Pick: Genoa (+1,5)
Odds: 1.83 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 6
Possible profit: 4.98
Event date: 26 January
Editor Facts
- Rostick is 4 for 4 in tips involving fiorentina this season
