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Serie A monday night football provides an interesting matchup between fifth placed Fiorentina and the surprise package of Hellas Verona, currently on 6th place in the standings.
Fiorentina brought in some great players over the summer. They lost the best of that bunch (Mario Gomez, knee injury) but still they produced good football and are just 4 points away from the 3rd place. For sure a win would be great for the Firenze team – especially with Napoli having a tough game in Rome vs. Lazio. Fiorentina is coming after a 0-0 draw at Pacos Ferreira in the Europa League but the “Viola” side had no motivation and rested some players. Overall in the last 5 games Fiorentina won 3, drawn 2 and lost 1. At home the hosts posted a statistical line of 3 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss. Actually Fiorentina played better on the road this season.
The freshly promoted Hellas Verona turned a lot of heads with their Serie A performance this season. They posted a surprisingly effective offensive play (22 goals scored) and are just 2 points behind Fiorentina in the standings – but mainly because of their home performances. On the road, Verona has been rather poor, losing 4 out of the 6 matches they played. The visiotors lost the last two serie A games without scoring and they will be desperate to avoid a third loss. As a personal opinion, I believe Verona will continue to do well this season and finish in the top half – they are a good team and don’t look like just a short-term fluke. After all, already 13 rounds have passed in the Serie A and they are still up there in the first 6.
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Fiorentina is the favorite for sure, but the odds on home win are way too short considering Verona’s form this season, even if the visitors played poor on the road. I think the best bet in this game is the over 2.5 goals. Looking at the recent results you might think that it’s not a good choice (both teams failed to score in their last two official games) but the overall statistics shed a more clear insight of why to bet a high scoring game. After 23 rounds, Firenze has a goal difference of 24 -15 and Verona has a goal difference of 22-20. That means that in both teams games an average of at least 3 goals per match is scored, so that is basically all out attacking football. Also Fiorentina plays higher scoring matches at home, while Verona plays higher scoring matches on the road.
Both sides play nice offensive football and 2 matches consecutive without a goal scored is too much for them. Vicenzo Montella stated that not only does he want Fiorentina to win, but he wants to play an attacking game and score some goals. Verona won’t back down as they like this style and do not want a third game without scoring themselves. I expect a good flow in a game between two very attacking teams who are desperate to break a bad run of form in front of goal and are more than capable to do it. Very good odds on the over, if this game would have been played 2 weeks ago we would have odds of maybe 1.55. My betting tip today is Fiorentina – Hellas Verona 2-1.
Pick: over 2,5 goals
Odds: 1.68 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 5.44
Event date: 2 December
Editor Facts
- Ocean lost the last 3 tips in Serie A
