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Serie A leaders Fiorentina will try to cement a Top 2 place in the Europa League Group I, with the game against Polish side Lech Poznan surely being, on paper, one of the easiest European matches for the in form Italians.
Coming after a 2-1 loss to Napoli, Fiorentina is seeking some security in the Europa League, as they are left with 3 points in two matches after losing to Basel in the first round. Between the matches against Basel and Napoli, Fiorentina won 4 straight games, including a 4-0 win in Portugal against Belenenses. The Italians are in great form, leading the Serie A and winning 7 of the 10 matches played this season. With Belenenses and Lech Poznan posing little threat for qualification, the Firenze side will virtually assure the second place with a win today and will remain in the fight for the top spot as well.
Nobody could have predicted the magnitude of the disaster Lech Poznan is suffering this season. After winning the league last year, the visitors are dead last in Poland with 6 points in 12 matches and were nonexistent in Europe as well. The atmosphere was bad from the start of the campaign, as many players were denied transfers and obviously morale has worsened big time since then. There are rumors over some financial issues as well. So far in this group Lech barely got a 0-0 home draw against Belenenses and lost 2-0 in Basel – despite playing arguably their best football of the season. Last time out, Lech finished 2-2 with Ruch Chorzów (the 12th placed team in Poland) at home.
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Team news & lineups:
Fiorentina will use some rotation, with a game against Roma coming up next, but the lineup could be stronger than the one that won 4-0 against Belenenses. Lech Poznan is also expected to rotate a bit, as their focus is on improving the dramatic domestic situation and they have a big match coming up as well, against Legia.
Fiorentina: Sepe – Alonso, Astori, Tomovic – Bernardeschi, Suarez, Vecino, Rebic – Ilicic – Babacar, Rossi
Lech Poznan: Gostomski – Kadar, Kaminski, Arajuuri, Ceesay – Gajos, Tetteh, Linetty, Formella – Jevtic, Kownacki
This is a game Fiorentina should win comfortably. They play at home, so they can treat the encounter with full focus. The hosts will be motivated to get the three points in order to ease the pressure in this group and allow themselves to focus more on the Serie A. Last but not least, their form and level of football is remarkable. Meeting a team with Lech Poznan’s problems will surely facilitate Fiorentina’s objectives tonight.
With both teams expected to rotate, the deeper and better bench of Fiorentina will come in handy, as the difference between starters and substitutes is smaller for the Italians than it is for a side like Lech Poznan.
Fiorentina proved its motivation in this competition by going to Portugal and winning 4-0 in the previous round, so I expect nothing less than a convincing performance here and win by 2 or more goals. The visitors are actually more focused on their domestic issues, as qualification from this group seems next to impossible. My tip is Fiorentina to cover the 1,25 asian handicap. Prediction: Fiorentina – Lech Poznan 2-0.
Pick: Fiorentina (-1,25 Asian Handicap)
Odds: 1.81 @ 1xBet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 6.48
Event date: 22 October
