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Stats and standings might suggest an easy Fiorentina win at home against Sassuolo, but the circumstances and the analysis could well prove the odds wrong here.
After winning 3 of the last 4 games in Serie A, Fiorentina suffered a heartbreaking defeat in the Italian Cup final against Napoli, 1-3. Now with nothing left to fight for in the league and with morale low, it remains to be seen how and if the hosts will be able to recover when they host a desperate Sassuolo side at Artemio Franchi. The La Viola side posted some excellent goalscoring stats recently, finding the net 11 times in the last 5 games in all competitions.
The visitors are on the 18th place right now, 1 point behind 17th placed Bologna, so they really need to get something in Firenze today. Even a point could be ok, considering that relegation rivals Bologna and Catania will play against each other next week. Sassuolo will be encouraged by their clear improvement in form lately. After getting 7 points in 3 rounds they played a very good game against Juventus last week. They lost 1-3 but led 1-0 at one point and gave Juve a solid fight overall. Sassuolo is a moody team, they can mix it up with the best if they are in good form but can also lose big even to the worst team if they are on an off day. The visitors have the second worst defense in the Serie A but often they are able to even things out thanks to their decent attack led by the young italian superstar Berardi.
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Team news & lineups
Mario Gomez and Ante Rebic are out for Fiorentina, while Giuseppe Rossi will be on the bench at best. Sassuolo will have to do without Alexe, Magnanelli, Bianco, Manfredini and Acerbi, but the visitors will get their top goalscorer and best player Berardi back after suspension.
Fiorentina: Neto – Tomovic, Rodriguez, Savic, Pasqual – Valero, Pizzaro, Aquilani – Ilicic, Matri, Cuadrado
Sassuolo: Pegolo – Gazzola, Antei, Cannavaro, Longhi – Biondini, Brighi, Missiroli – Zaza, Berardi, Sansone
I wouldn`t count on a Fiorentina win considering the morale and motivation of the two teams here, but I am also reluctant to go against them on the moneyline. The best bet is the over 2,5 goals according to the analysis. We all know Fiorentina can score and their goalscoring stats recently have been great. Sassuolo’s defense can be easily broken by the Firenze side, but on the other hand a desperate visiting side will surely create something against a rather relaxed opponent. I can’t see anybody keeping a clean sheet today but I`m not a fan of the Both To Score bet and thus my tip is over 2,5 goals here. Prediction: Fiorentina – Sassuolo 2-2.
Pick: over 2,5 goals
Odds: 1.68 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 6.12
Event date: 6 May
