Betdistrict.com
Florian Mayer and Jerzy Janowicz will meet in one of the best matches in the 3rd round of the Australian Open. Looking at the odds, they might seem a little strange, with Mayer considered a huge 1.50 favorite and the price on him dropping despite Janowicz being arguably the better player. Can this be a value bet?
Things are simple. JJ did not seem to bee at his best so far this tournament, still looking a little bothered by the foot injury he suffered late last season. He was also clearly bothered by the heat at times, and because of these factors the odds on Mayer are dropping. The Pole needed 5 sets to get past wildcard Thompson, but on the other hand improved his performances for a 4 set win over spaniard Pablo Andujar, where he looked a little more healthy and fit. He was also extremely motivated, ripping his shirt off in delight after the win.
Mayer started the season with a solid semifinal showing at Doha (defeating Murray on the way), only to lose in the first round at Sydney to Matosevic. Here in Melbourne he defeated Kudla in 3 sets and Youzhny in a 5 set thriller. Overall, good form for Mayer, but he did show some weaknesses against Youzhny. One can`t say that Mayer is playing his best tennis right now.
 |
Wide markets and in-play betting coverage. Get 100% first deposit bonus (25£) by registering at Winner.com now! |
Florian Mayer leads the Head 2 Head 2-0, but both meetings were in 2012, prior to Jerzy Janowicz`s emergence as a top player on the tour.
This is a value bet here. If the odds would have been 1.91-1.91, I`d probably have taken Mayer, as I reckon he has about 55% chances to win this. But at this price, no way! Janowicz has more weapons and if he improves again (like he did in 2nd round compared to the 1st), he will become a favorite to win. His foot injury is not so serious and it clearly got better in the 2nd round, so 2 more days of rest could make JJ as healthy as ever. The heat factor troubled Mayer as much as it did Janowicz, with the german looking close to fainting at some points in the Youzny game. The marathon against the russian could have a bad effect over Mayer today. All in all, Janowicz is a must bet at these odds and with a little bit of luck we should see him advance in the 4th round. He can lose or win against anyone at any time, and this unpredictability makes him a great choice for betting here. My pick is Janowicz to win this in 5 sets. Odds are still dropping on Mayer but I expect the trend to stop soon. Small-medium stakes.
Pick: Jerzy Janowicz to win
Odds: 2.50 @ 10Bet
Stake: 5
Possible profit: 7.50
Event date: 17 January
Editor Facts
- Rostick is 2 for 3 in tips on the Australian Open
- Rostick is 2 for 3 in tips on tennis in January
