Fluminense – Italy

Italy decided to play a friendly game against Fluminense as their last serious rehearsal prior to the World Cup. The match will be held in Volta Redonda, Rio de Janeiro, not on Fluminense’s stadium, but the Brazilians can be considered hosts.

Fluminense were thrilled at the news that they will get the chance to play against the 2006 World Champions and the Brazilians will feel they have a good chance of getting a famous result. The match comes at a right time for them – Fluminense is in very good form, second in the league and has a very good team. Of course they will use their best players in the lineup for this game and will be very motivated to impress, but unfortunately for them they will miss their superstar and best player Fred, away on duty with the Brazilian national team.

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Italy has big problems ahead of the World Cup. The Squadra Azzura has played some horrible football in the recent friendly matches and the icing on the cake was the 1-1 home draw against Luxembourg four days ago – and Italy played with their best squad. It was the 7th consecutive game in which Italy failed to win and the visitors will be hoping to finally break the ice today in order to enter the World Cup with a positive morale, or at least not with a dreadful one. Reports indicate that Prandelli will not use his best lineup tonight.

Italy: Perin – Abate, Ranocchia, Paletta, Darmian – Thiago Motta, Parolo, Aquilani – Insigne, Immobile, Cerci.

Giving the current form of Italy and the fact that it’s just a friendly, I can see Fluminense getting a result. The hosts of course will be much more motivated to play good football and they are a good team in Brazil, not easy to break down. Italy could also have problems with the climate and time zone, as they just arrived on the continent a couple of days ago, so that could make a difference as well. I was thinking about tipping an 1x bet on this game, but on second thought I don`t think that pick it is worth it at odds just over evens, because I doubt Fluminense will be able to win the game, after all there is a difference in quality and stature. The draw has more value, especially if we take into consideration that Italy has 6 draws in the last 7 games. I wouldn`t be caught dead backing a B-string Italy side to win in Brazil 2 days after arriving in the country so, all in all, my tip is the draw. Prediction: Fluminense – Italy 1-1.

Pick: Draw
Odds: 4.00 @ William Hill
Stake: 5
Possible profit: 15
Event date: 8 June