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Fluminense is on the brink of becoming the first ever club to get relegated a year after winning the Serie A title. The champions sacked coach Luxemburgo after failing to win for a 9th consecutive time last round.
Fluminense is on 18th place, just 1 point from safety and has to do something in the last 5 rounds to avoid a disastrous relegation. Some of Fluminese`s recent horrible form can be attributed to injuries and suspensions. For today Fluminense again has marquee absentees: Fred, Carlinhos, Valencia, Michael, Anderson, Edinho + Wellington (questionable). The match against lowly Nautico has become the game of the season for Fluminese, everybody expecting a win. The hosts could not have asked for an easier opponent (on paper).
Nautico for sure will want to forget this season as soon as possible. They were terrible: last place, 17 points in 33 rounds. They had a horrible losing streak to begin the season, than a string of a couple good results and now another horrible streak: Nautico lost the last 8 matches played with a goal difference of 4-27! The team has all kinds of problems and this season is not a priority anymore. Like Fluminense, the visitors also have problems with injuries and suspensions: Rogerio, Gideao, Martinez, Vincius and Maranhao are not available. Nautico made some changes in the squad and will start a lot of players who have not played for the club so far, most of them loaned from Palmeiras.
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Fluminense lineup: Cavalieri – Gum, Euzebio, Digao – Jean, Diguinho, Braga, Wagner, Felipe – Sobis, Samuel
Nautico lineup: Berna – Filipe, Alison, Amaro – Auremir, Derley, Real, Elicarlos, Collaco – Paulo, Leite
Fluminense is in crisis, but is still a favorite against this out of sorts Nautico side … but to stake on 1.25 odds on a team with 9 matches without a win is insane I would say. In my opinion the best bet for this game is over 2,5 goals. Both teams score and concede a fair number of goals… in Fluminense’s matches there are about 2.35 goals per game scored – in Nautico`s matches there are about 2.7 goals per game scored. Not fantastic stats, but in the region of the 2,5 line. The thing in this game is that Fluminense will be desperate to win and will attack with all they got. Nautico`s back line for this game has never played together this season and there will be a lot of errors for sure. Nautico on the other hand will play without pressure and can also punish a team in very bad form that will leave open spaces.
Even if star striker Fred is missing for Fluminense, they have Rafael Sobis up front and this looks a solid over 2,5 bet. A lot of defensive players are also out for both sides. My call is Fluminense – Nautico 3-1.
Pick: over 2,5 goals
Odds: 1.70 @ Doxxbet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 5.60
Event date: 14 November
Editor Facts
- Ocean is 3 for 3 in the Brazil Serie A this season
