France – Australia

France and Australia will square off in a Rugby test match at Stade de France, Paris. The bookies opened with France as a 2.50 odds underdog, but after Australia decided to field a second string lineup, odds on France plummeted to as low as 1.65.

France has struggled a lot in the last years, particularly under ex – coach Philippe Saint Andre. French rugby has actually hit all time lows, like finishing last in the Six Nations or losing by 49 points to New Zealand in last year’s World Cup. France always had the talent, but for some reasons things were just not clicking. Les Bleus didn`t get much better this year under Guy Noves, but they did improve. A 5th place finish in the Six Nations was a bit misleading, as there wasn`t much difference between them and Scotland and Ireland, which finished higher. Finally, France was pretty impressive last week in a 52-8 win over Samoa. Australia will obviously be a totally different task, but there were good signs for France last week.

Most of the season has been really poor for Australia, but they stepped up big time in the last couple of months after getting a few players back from injury and shaking up the lineup a bit. Australia ended up second in the Rugby Championship, played some really good matches against South Africa and Argentina and continued the good run in these November tests. Australia claimed a massive 32-8 win against Wales two weeks ago and followed that up with a 1 point win against Scotland last week. The Wallabies didn`t play their best rugby against Scotland, but still showed character and got the win in the end.

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Team news & lineups:

France has made 5 changes to the team that beat Samoa last week, these being positive changes meant to strengthen the team. Meanwhile, Australia has chosen to field a pretty much second string unit for this game. Coach Cheika made no less than 12 changes to the lineup that won in Scotland and benched his best players Folau, Foley or Moore.

France: 15 Scott Spedding, 14 Noa Nakaitaci, 13 Rémi Lamerat, 12 Wesley Fofana, 11 Virimi Vakatawa, 10 Jean-Marc Doussain, 9 Maxime Machenaud, 8 Louis Picamoles, 7 Kévin Gourdon, 6 Charles Ollivon, 5 Yoann Maestri, 4 Sébastian Vahaamahina, 3 Uini Atonio, 2 Guilhelm Guirado (c), 1 Cyril Baille

Australia: 15 Luke Morahan, 14 Sefanaia Naivalu, 13 Tevita Kuridrani, 12 Kyle Godwin, 11 Henry Speight, 10 Quade Cooper, 9 Will Genia, 8 Sean McMahon, 7 David Pocock (c), 6 Scott Fardy, 5 Rob Simmons, 4 Kane Douglas, 3 Allan Alaalatoa, 2 Tolu Latu, 1 James Slipper

Listen, Australia is a much better team than France, but with this lineup and playing away from home, it’s fair to consider them underdogs. Even coach Cheika admitted that this is an experimental Australia team and that, while they want to win this, the focus is on the next two matches against Ireland and England.

Not only has Australia changed its entire lineup and benched its best players, but they chose to field Cooper at No.10, which could prove a disastrous move. Australia was absolutely rubbish for most of this year until they finally benched Cooper and fielded Foley at No.10. Cooper has been dreadful in this position all year and even in the latest matches Australia suddenly became weaker when he entered the pitch in the last 20 minutes or so.

Australia has been very solid recently, but they showed in the first part of the season that without a few players in key position their level drops a low. This second string lineup has the potential to make Australia look like a totally different team – and that is not good news for the Wallabies against a France team that is always strong at home and looked sharp last week against Samoa.

France will no doubt look for a strong start at home in front of their own fans, this is a massive opportunity for them and they will surely be pumped up, playing with a lot of energy in front of an excited crowd. Meanwhile, Australia might need some time to find their feet with so many changes made to the team. The Australian starting lineup is also not quite good enough. France will need to have a decent cushion by the 60 minute mark if they want to win this game, because Australia’s bench is much stronger and the Wallabies will likely be better in the last 20 minutes or so. As such, the French know that they really need to start well.

Bottom line, I expect France to start strong with a lot of intensity, while Australia might come out flat, making errors, conceding penalties. It`s a high possibility that this will happen with players who have not had match time together on the pitch. The fact that the Wallabies will come into this game after a long and tiring season will not help them, especially as France sees this as a huge match and will treat it accordingly.

For the above reasons, I believe the best bet to take on this encounter is France to lead at half time. I think they might hold the lead until the end and claim victory, but betting on France to win the first half makes more sense than backing them to win the match or to cover the point spread. Prediction: France – Australia 24 – 21 (18 – 8 half time).

Pick: France to win the first half
Odds: 1.83 @ William Hill
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 6.64
Event date: 19 November