France – Canada

France and Canada will square off in the second match of the day at the Rugby World Cup. Les Bleus will try to put as many points on the board as possible, while Canada will aim to keep the score respectable after just playing an exhausting match against Italy.

France had two early matches in the RWC, so they haven`t played since 23 September, benefiting from 7 days of reast ahead of this clash. Les Bleus were pretty good so far, comfortably beating Italy 32-10 and cruising 38-11 past Romania – though the Romanians were a bit unlucky to lose by 27 points, but on the other hand France rested most of their first choice players. Today, France will put some of the main guys in the lineup and anything else than a bonus point win would be a huge disappointment. As it stands, Ireland will probably need a draw against France in the last Pool game in order to win the group, so France really needs to win this by as much as possible in order to avoid that. The difference between the 1st and the second place is massive – first place will get Argentina in the quarters, second place will get New Zealand.

Canada suffered a massive 50-7 drubbing at the hands of Canada in the opening game, but took an uninspired Italy all the way in an 18-23 loss on 26 September. It was a good performance from Canada, even though Italy has been a disaster so far in this Rugby World Cup. However, it will be a big task for the Canadaians to come up with the same intensity today, after having just 4 days of rest.

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Team news & lineups:

France will put some of its starters back in after rotating against Romania, while Canada will only change six players compared to the loss against Italy.

France: 15 Scott Spedding, 14 Rémy Grosso, 13 Mathieu Bastareaud, 12 Wesley Fofana, 11 Brice Dulin, 10 Frédéric Michalak, 9 Sebastien Tillous-Borde, 8 Damien Chouly, 7 Bernard Le Roux, 6 Thierry Dusautoir (c), 5 Yoann Maestri, 4 Pascal Pape, 3 Rabah Slimani, 2 Guilhem Guirado, 1 Eddy Ben Arous.

Canada: 15 Matt Evans, 14 Phil Mackenzie, 13 Ciaran Hearn, 12 Nick Blevins, 11 DTH van der Merwe, 10 Nathan Hirayama, 9 Phil Mack, 8 Tyler Ardron (c), 7 Richard Thorpe, 6 Kyle Gilmour, 5 Jamie Cudmore, 4 Brett Beukeboom, 3 Doug Wooldridge, 2 Aaron Carpenter, 1 Hubert Buydens.

Canada put its best effort against Italy, leaving absolutely everything on the pitch in a massive forward battle. I don`t believe the Canadians can produce a similar performance today, especially since they will only make six changes in the lineup. They will be exhausted, particularly in the second half, while France is rested and ready to go. Look for France to create havoc on the wings, like they did against Romania and also dominate a tired Canadian front row.

The bookies did a really good job so far with setting high handicaps in matches like these, when the underdog is tired. Ireland – Romania and Tonga – Namibia were similar games where the favorite cruised but could not cover a big spread (though both Ireland and Tonga should have done it). The spread is very high in this one as well, but I reckon the French will be able to cover it – particularly because they really need to win by as many as possible. If Ireland put 43 past a fresh Canada, France should be able to do the same against an exhausted Canada – which I rate as the worst team in the group, below Romania.

My tip is France -36,5 points. The odds are dropping on this bet and the handicap line is increasing even further. Prediction: France – Canada 50 – 9.

Pick: France -36,5
Odds: 1.85 @ Bwin
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 6.80
Event date: 1 October